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Futures for higher education: UUK scenarios workshop

Scenarios presentation

William Hammonds

on 18 April 2016

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Transcript of Futures for higher education: UUK scenarios workshop



Institution interest


Public interest
Economic growth
Social equity

New industries - new skills
Online learning
New research agendas
Consumer interest
Demand led funding
Constitutional change...
New opportunities
around the globe
New providers
Economic development of Asia
Research funding?
Futures for higher education:
the UUK scenarios project

A 1 year project run through the longer term strategy group

An opportunity to create a space to think about the future in fresh new ways

Also aimed to be useful for the wider membership
Some features of the last decade
Some points to consider
What sectors have changed beyond recognition?

What sectors are starting rapid change now?

What about ‘Black Swans’?
Demand continuing to outstrip heavily regulated supply

Dominant 3 year residential degree model – prestige of traditional models

Other providers marginal or subordinate to universities
Our drivers
A central assumption
A picture of the future?
Do we know and offer what society needs?
Does quality assurance keep up with the new complexity?
Self interested
and marginalised
Quality and international reputation of HE declines
HEIs at the heart of social and economic advance
In a more complex environment there will be fewer organisational certainties
New knowledge will be central to institutional positioning
As will effectively bringing that knowledge to 'market'
Using data in performance and planning

doing more with the data – institutional research

the application of open and linked data integration methods

Understanding costs to evaluate the benefits - Trak
Flight of the Flamingos 'vision' scenario: 'networks of universities at the heart of social and economic advance‘

Icarus: 'Rapid expansion at the expense of a global reputation for excellence‘

Lame ostrich: 'Internecine struggles and marginalisation'
The LTSN scenarios
Overseas networks

Strategic engagement with Technology
Developing effective pedagogical models
Maintaining the right 'portfolio'
Student experience

E.g. credit accumulation
or co-production?
Responsive internal quality aligned to wider institutional objectives
Making the right long term investments
A bit of background
How do you see the future?

What decisions will you have to make?
Are we leaving a 'decade of disappointment'?
Importance of PGT
Multi location economies of scale
Close regional federation to create economies of scale to compete on global stage

Preservation of existing features of institutions in the face of rapid social and technological change

Component parts serving clear market segments – ranging from an elite research intensive institution to a network of FE colleges
Research intensive
Bilateral partners
Dominant research intensives
Organisational archipelago
Private college
FE college
Online provider
TNE partner
Pathway provider
Specialised networkers
Bilateral partners
Which may require an evaluation of relationships with other institutions
What is right, wrong or missing from this picture - or have you heard it too often?

What is most significant for you and what are you less bothered about?

What are the most significant uncertainties and how might these shape outcomes?

What other ways are there or should there be of looking at all this?
Questions to consider
Click here for the full scenarios: http://bit.ly/xZ3u60
For more:
From planning
To performance
Continued demand for higher education
Post industrial economic development
Developing middle classes in emerging economies
Knowledge based economic development
Tuition fees replenishing funding
MOOCs - Emerging example of a digital shift?
Future of UK university research base, UUK 2010
The shift to a digital society - innovated and incubated by universities in the first place

Will it all be about technological and social solutions for climate change, or something else?
The next big agenda?
The role of technology in enabling the disaggregation of delivery and compartmentalised ‘products’

The delivery process:
Content – syllabus, research & scholarship
Classroom – teaching, lectures, supervision
Infrastructure – IT networks, libraries, estates etc

The ‘product’:
Pay as you go tuition, credit accumulation
Examination, accreditation and validation
Library services
Student finance?
'Unbundled’ models of delivery?
Think of the experience of newspapers or the music industry:
New dominant competitors
New market trajectories
New models of production
Quality and abuse
Financial sustainability
The challenge of open digital models - 'disruptive innovation'
Open educational resources
Online distance education
Large international enrollments
Major US universities early entrants
Web 2.0 business models
'Beta' development ethos

Mission - your reason for being

Vision - what success might look like

Strategy - what you need to do to get there

Planning - putting it all into action

Developing a vision
Challenging aspirations rooted in reality
Based on the formula: C = (DVF) > R

C = possible change
D = Dissatisfaction with the status quo
V = Vision to be achieved
F = First Steps to be taken
R = Resistance to change

(Dick Beckhard 1987)
The Montfleur model of South Africa
Change management model
The decision tree
Flight of the flamingos
Lame duck
A plotting route out of apartheid
Mission focus




Questions to consider
X years into the future:

What does success look like?

Where has investment been targeted?

What new activities might there be?

What have you stopped doing?

What about tuition growth?
One final reflection on generational change
Full transcript