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NCAA March Madness - Data Viz

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on 18 March 2014

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Transcript of NCAA March Madness - Data Viz

The Path to NCAA Glory
Round Two
Round One
Cinderella Spotlight
In 2012,
(15) defeated Duke (2) in the Round of 64 in one of the greatest upsets in tournament history
In 2013,
Florida Gulf Coast
(15) defeated San Diego State (7) in the Round of 32 to continue its unexpected tournament run
Cinderella Spotlight
Sweet 16
Cinderella Spotlight
2006 saw
George Mason
(11) defeat Wichita State (7) in the Sweet 16 en route to a Final Four Appearance
Elite Eight
Cinderella Spotlight
Virginia Commonwealth
shocked the Elite Eight round with an upset over 1-seed Kansas in 2011
Cinderella Spotlight
beat 11-seeded VCU to advance to the NCAA Championship in 2011, the lowest seed to do so in the last 10 years
Final Four
NCAA Championship
Since 2004, there's been a huge drop-off in Round One performance from the 4 to the 5-seed. The 5 vs. 12 match-up has seen a
win split; by comparison, the 4 vs. 13 has yielded a
History Suggests...
History Suggests...
The 12-seed has solid odds of upsetting the 5
Since 2004, 8-seeds have been eliminated in the first two rounds more than any other seed outside of the bottom three (
of the time)
This may be the end of the line for the 8-seed
History Suggests...
12-16 seeds will not advance beyond this point
of "extreme underdogs" have been eliminated by the Sweet 16 round since 2004
History Suggests...
9's & 11's are more likely to advance than 6's & 7's
Dating back to 2004,
of 9 or 11-seeds have moved on to the Final Four, while all 6 and 7-seeds have been eliminated in the Elite Eight round or earlier
History Suggests...
4-seeds have had a Final Four success rate of only
as only Michigan in 2013 moved on to the National Championship
4-seeds are unlikely to rise to the occasion
History Suggests...
Non-top 3 seeds will see their chances burst
NCAA Championship (2004-2013)
In the last 10 NCAA tournaments, no seed outside of the top three has won an NCAA championship, suggesting that
seeds ultimately perform to their expectations
Stats Don't Lie
High seeds eliminated in Round One exhibit poor defensive traits relative to their opponents
Stats Don't Lie
Stats Don't Lie
Stats Don't Lie
Stats Don't Lie
Stats Don't Lie
It takes statistical balance for an underdog to reach the big game
As a 5 and an 8-seed in 2010 and 2011,
reached the Championship due in large part to above average performance in
statistical categories
Thriving in a single area can carry a low-ranked seed to the Final Four
As an 11-seed,
reached the Final Four through efficiently shooting three-pointers relative to their competition
Outcomes are often determined by free throws
Seeded 10th, Davidson reached the Elite Eight in 2008 with an extremely advantageous Free Throw effort
Like in Round One, teams with high expectations fail in Round Two largely due to defense
Statistical Advantage of Teams Eliminated in Round One (2004-2013)
Eliminated Elite 8 Teams by Free Throw Advantage (2004-2013)
Steal and Block %'s by Top Teams Eliminated in Round 2 (2004-2013)
Top seeded teams who lost in Round Two were frequently outperformed by their opponents in Steal and Block %
Advantage in 3-Pointers Made and Attempted by Final Four Eliminated Teams (2004-2013)
Average Butler Performance (2010 & 2011) vs. Other Runner-Ups (2004-2013)
Final 4 or Better Performance by Seed (2004-2013)
Seeds 6,7,9 and 11 Performances (2004-2013)
Seeds 12, 13, 14, 15 and 16 Performances (2004-2013)
Round 1 and 2 Eliminations by Seed (2004-2013)
Round 1 Eliminations by Seed (2004-2013)
Good offense does not make up for bad defense
Of the teams eliminated in the Sweet 16 round, nearly all had an offensive competitive advantage but a defensive deficiency
Statistical Advantage of Sweet 16 Eliminated Teams (2004-2013)
Full transcript