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History of Statistics and Probability
Transcript of History of Statistics and Probability
Sir William Petty
James Bernoulli Sir William Petty
(1623 - 1687) Developed the use of simple averages. Applied the idea of estimation to develop quantitative data in the place of a census.
Would not have been considered a statistician by today's standards; however, was progressive in his methods for his time. 18th Century Pierre-Simon Laplace
Carl Friedrich Gauss 19th Century Adolphe QUetelet
Francis Galton 20th Century
(Early) Published the first treatise on vital statistics, Natural and Political Observations on the London Bills of Mortality, and shows the earliest attempt to apply theory.
Sought to distinguish between impression and fact and found much irregularity in the mortality data. When irregularities were noticed, Graunt searched for reasoning. John Graunt
(1620 - 1674): Blaise Pascal
(1623 - 1662) Corresponded with Fermat over the summer of 1654 to solve "the dice problem" and the "problem of points" already visited by Cardan, Tartaglia and Pacioli The dice problem: how many times one must throw a pair of dice before one expects a double six. The problem of points: how to divide the stakes if a game of dice is incomplete.
The problem was solved for a 2-player game but the mathematical methods known were not powerful enough to solve for 3 or more players. Jacob Bernoulli
(1655 - 1705) Published papers on probability in 1685; first major treatise in the field of probability and statistics published in 1713, Ars Conjectandi; developed what we call Bernoulli trials today, a trial that can only have 1 of 2 outcomes (success or failure). Pierre-Simon Laplace
(1749 - 1827) 1812: Analytical Theory of Probabilities; consisted of 2 books
1st book: generating functions & approximations to various expressions occurring in probability theory.
2nd book: definition of probability, Bayes' rule (named many years later), method of finding probability of compounding events, discussion of least squares and inverse probability Johann Carl Friedrich Gauss
(1777 - 1855) 1823 - Wrote paper devoted to mathematical statistics; specifically least squares method, Theory of combination of observation least subject to errors.
Believed combination of potential theory and least squares method connected science and nature Adolphe Quetelet
(1796 - 1874) Francis Galton
(1822 - 1911) Karl Pearson
Ronald Aylmer Fisher Karl Pearson
(1857 - 1936) William Gossett
(1876 - 1937) Ronald Aylmer Fisher
(1890 - 1962) 20th Century
(Later) Frank Wilcoxon William Kruskal
John Wallis Charles Spearman
David Kendall John Tukey
Charles Dunnett M. Keuls Frank Wilcoxon
(1892 - 1965) Computer Technology Overview Persuaded Minister of Public Education in Brussels to open an observatory Encountered LaPlace, Fourier and Poisson and learned the central importance of probability theory in astronomy. Advocated for the first population census after publishing a paper on the laws of births and mortality in Brussels.
Fan of US President Garfield who requested his help to improve the American census. Improved social applications of the normal curve. Introduced the concept of the law of large numbers Pioneer of statistical correlation and regression Placed research about heredity on a scientific basis by applying novel statistical concepts (for the times) Paved the way for the development of statistics which was continued through his student, Karl Pearson Discovered regression (originally called reversion) through an experiment with sweet peas Developed the correlation coefficient by graphing and re-graphing data until he realized the formula for elliptical curves could provide some structure to his calculations. Known as the "father of statistics" even though at the age of 33 he had still not begun work on statistical problems. Weldon and Galton influenced Pearson's desire to develop mathematical methods for studying heredity and evolution Developed the Chi-Square test of statistical significance Coined the term "standard deviation" in 1893 Invented the t-test to handle samples of small quantities for quality control at a brewery in Dublin. Was in a motor accident in 1934 and confined to the bed for 3 months; this was the first time he had been able to really focus on statistics. Interest in theory of errors led to investigate statistics Made major contributions to experimental design and analysis and to genetics Introduced randomization and analysis of variance to experimental design Introduced the concept of likelihood in 1921 & gave a new definition of statistics in 1922