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Population growth: What it means for development and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa

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UNU MERIT

on 26 March 2012

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Transcript of Population growth: What it means for development and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa

3. A 5% drop in real per capita income increases the risk of civil war breaking out by over 7%
THE POPULATION OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA IS SET TO DOUBLE WITHIN A GENERATION
AND SET TO REACH
NOW APPROACHING
1 BILLION...
1.6 billion
But these successes
bring new challenges...
HOW WILL WE
SO MANY PEOPLE?

feed
with a stake
in their future
Education for girls is not an option...
666 million
755 million
812 million
833 million
854 million
& LONGER
GOOD
NEWS
2000
2005
2008
2009
2010
BETTER
HEALTH
LIVES ARE
educated youth
BY 2036
For their own stability and security countries in sub-Saharan Africa need...
When you educate
a girl in Africa:

- She’ll be three times less likely to
get HIV/AIDS
- Earn 25% more income
- And have a smaller,
healthier family.

Source: Camfed / UN Girls' Education Initiative:
http://bit.ly/5lGZpH
1. The population of sub-Saharan Africa is growing by
around 2.5% per year
100% projected increase
in population by 2036
≈ 450% rise in the risk
of civil war outbreak
Sources: UNU-MERIT / UNU-WIDER
http://bit.ly/nXMeVX
http://bit.ly/sM7xZs
United Nations University research has found:
...but there is still hope if governments
take strong policy
decisions NOW
because...
UN Photo/Stuart Price
UN Photo/Eric Kanalstein
UN Photo/Fred Noy
UN Photo/Tim McKulka
UN Photo/John Isaac
UNU-MERIT, The Netherlands
UNU-WIDER, Finland
Based on research by
Images courtesy of
UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe
UN Photo/Devra Berkowitz
UN Photo/Yann Gamblin
UN Photo/Evan Schneider
UN Photo/Milton Grant
https://twitter.com/unumerit
More from
UNU-MERIT
http://www.merit.unu.edu
It's a RIGHT
Article 26.
- Everyone has the right to education. Education shall be free,
at least in the elementary and fundamental stages.
- Elementary education shall be compulsory.
- Technical and professional education shall be made
generally available and higher education shall be
equally accessible to all on the basis of merit.
Read the UNU working papers
with policy recommendations at:
2. A 5% rise in population increases the risk of civil war
breaking out by almost 23%
HOW WILL WE EDUCATE
AND HOUSE EVERYONE?
Adapted from a prezi by UNFPA:
2011 State of World Population Report
http://prezi.com/cg6drdtw1blp/2011-state-of-world-population-report/

4. Public investment is too low (e.g. in education),
and needs to rise from on average 7.2% to at least 8.4%
5. Higher public investment, especially in education for girls, would help to bring down the population growth rate


http://bit.ly/nXMeVX
http://bit.ly/sM7xZs
UNU-MERIT
UNU-WIDER
Worst Case Scenario
Full transcript