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China's Energy Equation

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by

Zilong Wang

on 30 October 2012

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Transcript of China's Energy Equation

China's Energy Equation E = f (e) the "e" GDP GDP Growth Rate Average annual growth growth rate of GDP = 8.1% (1952-2011) E = f (e) = e x From e to E Demand Demand = Supply Demand: Rising, Faster and Faster Per capita electricity consumption up more than 15 times in 30 years.
From 2006-2011, per capita energy consumption increased 31%.
Per capita energy consumption = 1/3 of OECD average. After all,
tomorrow is another day... IEA: China’s energy demand up by 75% from 2008-2035 (36% of global increase).
Chinese gov: without “fundamental changes”, by 2030 China’s energy consumption up 150% from 2008 level --- doubling the prediction of IEA. Demand: Where It Comes From Demand: Construction Construction: nationwide infrastructure, steel, concrete, glass, all of which energy intensive. Chinese GDP is 60% driven by real estate construction, whereas in other Asian tigers 30%, the West 15%.
Chinese industrial sector consumes 70%+ of China’s energy. US industrial sector = less than 20% of US total. Demand: Export Net export growing at 18.1% annually since 1978.
In 2009, exports accounted for 24% of Chinese GDP. China is consuming energy on behalf of the rest of the world. Supply Portfolio Supply: In perspective Supply: Coal 70% of total, 80% of e-generation.
“Staple fuel” and “energy of last resort” due to its abundance.
Huge pressure on railway and highway system.
High environmental and social costs. Supply: Oil Limited oil reserve, ranking No.14 in the world. Domestic production has peaked.
Robust demand + shrinking domestic supply = reliance on foreign oil. Supply: Natural Gas From 1999 to 2009, natural gas production and consumption x4
In 2007, a net importer for the first time in two decades.
4% of China’s primary energy consumption in 2009. Supply: Hydro China is the biggest hydroelectricity producer in the world, 1/5 of world’s total.
Hydro = 6.4% of China’s total energy need, whereas in Norway, the number is 67.8%, and in Brazil 39.2%.
Three Gorges Dam: 22GW Supply: Nuclear Nuclear = 1.8% of electricity generation in 2011. World average = 14%.
2011, China has 15 nuclear reactors running, 12.5 GW.
Another 26 reactors under construction, with 29 GW.
In 2011, China’s Uranium imports = 25% of world’s total Uranium consumption, building strategic reserves. To Summarize China's is US x2 and Japan/Germany x4 Chinese government: by 2015, add 1 billion m^2 green building (Chicago area x2).
Investing over $230 billion in building energy efficiency by 2020. a few benchmarks Some highlights:
For the past 30 years, 6% annual energy consumption increase has supported 10% GDP growth
Over past decade, reliance on foreign oil from 32% to 57%
Industries consume 70% of China’s total energy. Four sectors accounts for 40%: iron, nonferrous metal, chemical, and construction. a dangerous chain reaction Legitimacy of government Standard of living Nationalism Economic growth Energy resources Environmental issues Geopolitics green building Renewables and EV In 2011, China has
15 nuclear power plant in operation, with 12.5 GW capacity.
Another 26 reactors under construction, with 29 GW.
47 GW of wind connected to the grid.
230 GW hydro.
3 GW solar pv.
the largest installed capacity for hydro, wind, and nuclear under construction. EV has disappointing performance.
Goal: 700K. Reality: 10K.
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