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FORG APSA

Our research on the origins of rebel groups
by

Kathleen Cunningham

on 7 September 2016

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Transcript of FORG APSA

Where to rebel groups come from?
Increasing attention to unique features of rebel groups, including:

Political structures
Leadership
Connections to civilians & bases of support
Rebels emerge from a variety of entities
Some are parent-less, with no antecedent organization

Most begin their life as something else
How and why do rebel foundations matter?
Conclusions
Striking variation in the foundations of rebel groups

Next steps:
Increased data coverage
Delve into mechanisms
Thanks

Proposed mechanisms & hypotheses
Parent type effects connections to civilians, and thus, resilience

Parent type effects perceptions of sustainable solutions to conflict
Rebel group parents
Foundations of Rebel Groups
J. M. Braithwaite & K. G. Cunningham
The effects of rebel origins
Select Hypotheses:
Rebels with social mvmt parent more likely to get concessions
Rebels with political party parents less likely to get concessions
Organizational foundations matter for concessions
Predicting concessions to rebels
African rebel groups from 1989 - 2012

Concessions data from Jakana Thomas 2014

Count models
Full transcript