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Transcript of Predictive Analytics
Importance of Data
Applying Predictive Analytics
Why? predicting human behavior :
Toughen crime fighting
what do we want to predict?
Every important thing a person does is valuable to predict, namely
consume, think, work, quit, vote, love, procreate, divorce, mess up, lie, cheat, steal, kill, and die.
Obama was re-elected in 2012 with the help of voter prediction.
This book is about the most influential and valuable achievements of computerized prediction, the two things that make it possible:
The people behind it, and
The fascinating science that powers it.
EIN6339 Operations Engineering
Econometrics: the branch of economics concerned with the use of statistics in describing economic systems.
Eric Siegel, PhD, founder of Predictive Analytics World and Text Analytics World, and Executive Editor of the Predictive Analytics Times, makes the how and why of predictive analytics understandable and captivating.
mid-1990s, an entrepreneurial scientist named
curtailed risk , boosted profit, and witnessed windfall
The Obama for America Campaign predicted which voters would be positively persuaded by campaign contact (a call, door knock, flier, or TV ad), and which would actually be inadvertently influenced to vote adversely by contact.
Predictive Analytics (PA)
Technology that learns from experience (data) to predict the future behavior of individuals in order to drive better decisions.
Is PA means Forecasting?
Forecasting makes collective predictions on a macroscopic level.
Predictive technology tells you which individual Nebraskans are most likely to be seen with cone in hand.
A mechanism that predicts a behavior of an individual, such as click, buy, lie, or die. It takes characteristics of the individual as input, and provides a predictive score as output.
The higher the score, the more likely it is that the individual will exhibit the predicted behavior.
Learning how to predict from data.
Machine learning builds the predictive model:
machine learning is also called predictive modeling, which is a more common term in the commercial world
is often used as a synonym for PA, but, as an evocative metaphor depicting “digging around” through data in one fashion or another, it is often used more broadly as well
“Was Target wrong in using analytics to identify pregnant women from changes in their buying behavior?”
9% Not Sure