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Predictive Analytics

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Murad Andejany

on 12 February 2015

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Transcript of Predictive Analytics



Predictive Analytic


Importance of Data

Anxiety Index

Learning Machine

Ensemble Modeling

Understanding Language

Applying Predictive Analytics

Why?  predicting human behavior :

Fortify healthcare
Decrease risk
Conquer spam
Toughen crime fighting
Cut costs
Boosts sales
what do we want to predict?
Every important thing a person does is valuable to predict, namely

consume, think, work, quit, vote, love, procreate, divorce, mess up, lie, cheat, steal, kill, and die.
Obama was re-elected in 2012 with the help of voter prediction.

This book is about the most influential and valuable achievements of computerized prediction, the two things that make it possible:

The people behind it, and
The fascinating science that powers it.
Book Summary
EIN6339 Operations Engineering
Tim Matin
Murad Andejany
Hamed Almalki

Econometrics: the branch of economics concerned with the use of statistics in describing economic systems.
Eric Siegel, PhD, founder of Predictive Analytics World and Text Analytics World, and Executive Editor of the Predictive Analytics Times, makes the how and why of predictive analytics understandable and captivating.
mid-1990s, an entrepreneurial scientist named
Dan Steinberg

curtailed risk , boosted profit, and witnessed windfall
The Obama for America Campaign predicted which voters would be positively persuaded by campaign contact (a call, door knock, flier, or TV ad), and which would actually be inadvertently influenced to vote adversely by contact.
Important Terms
Predictive Analytics (PA)

Technology that learns from experience (data) to predict the future behavior of individuals in order to drive better decisions.

Is PA means Forecasting?
Forecasting makes collective predictions on a macroscopic level.
Predictive technology tells you which individual Nebraskans are most likely to be seen with cone in hand.
Important Terms
Predictive model
A mechanism that predicts a behavior of an individual, such as click, buy, lie, or die. It takes characteristics of the individual as input, and provides a predictive score as output.

The higher the score, the more likely it is that the individual will exhibit the predicted behavior.
Important Terms
Machine learning

Learning how to predict from data.
Machine learning builds the predictive model:

machine learning is also called predictive modeling, which is a more common term in the commercial world
Important Terms
Data mining
is often used as a synonym for PA, but, as an evocative metaphor depicting “digging around” through data in one fashion or another, it is often used more broadly as well
“Was Target wrong in using analytics to identify pregnant women from changes in their buying behavior?”
17% yes
74% No
9% Not Sure
Full transcript