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Analysis of Granich Paper

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Christine Tat

on 20 August 2011

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Transcript of Analysis of Granich Paper

Granich Paper Analysis
Deterministic model
gives ART to the infected (no minimum for T - cell count); the point is to see what happens when they are treated before the AIDS stage
Deterministic Model
Universal voluntary testing for those over 15 along with immediate ART could eliminate HIV in South Africa by 2020
May require billions a year to help pay to drive towards elimination
How it works?
Takes over CD4/T-cells
Lowers CD4 count
Makes it harder for body to fight infections
Becomes AIDS when CD4 count is under 200 per cubic millimeter of blood
Body can no longer fight even the smallest infetions
The Solution: ART
1) keeps infected alive
2) less likely to transmit
HIV = Human Immunodefiency Virus
International epidemic
Millions have passed away from it, and millions are still infected
Over 38 million people in the world had AIDS/HIV in 2005
If the Granich Paper is true, then universal voluntary testing, immediate ART treatment, and safe sex could slowly eliminate the disease
ART after T-cell count is under 350 per microliter:
reduces incidence, prevalence, but greatly reduces mortality
can save lives, but still many deaths
Universal voluntary testing w/ immediate ART
reduces all incidence, prevalnce, and mortality
saves more lives since infectivity is reduced immediately
SIAR Model is the SIR model, except includes those on ART
SIR Model only shows only shows susceptible, infected, and death rate
Our Model's Differences

VS SIR Model:
Includes ART and Tau

VS Granich Model
More complicated; includes 4 different stages for infected and ART; also includes those being born into the model
The Granich Model tested both immediate ART and ART after CD4 count is under 350
The World Health Organization Paper agrees that ART treatment above the 350 CD4 count per microliter should be recommended
Difference Between Our Model and Theirs:
Our model gives ART to the infected when CD4 count is under 350 per microliter
Their model gives ART regardless of CD4 count
Could We Eliminate HIV?
If the alpha parameter (transmission) were decreased
And if the tau (treatment) were increased, infectivity and deaths would decrease
HIV / AIDS Paper
by Christine Tat, David Santos, and Alexis Williams

Universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: a mathematical model
(Or the Granich Paper for short)

*There is not ART in the SIR Model
Main Points
Universal voluntarying testing and immediate ART would provide the most effective treatment
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