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Global Production & Consumption

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Sherman Lee

on 15 May 2014

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Transcript of Global Production & Consumption

- For any given geographical area (region to a planet)
- The rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve
- Marion K. Hubbert (1903 - 1989)
- Geo-scientist based in Houston, Texas
- 1956

Question 3
Global energy situation
Oil=> the world's dominant fuel (34.8% of global energy consumption)
Consumption: (Recent)
Largest increase in
Asia Pacific
with 30.1% of oil consumption, even more than North America
Least oil consumption:
Middle East
responsible for 31.9% of total oil production
(Saudi Arabia- 13.1% of world total)
Europe and Eurasia
(Russia- over half the production)
North America
Why does location of consumption and production are varied so widely?
-Some nations consume more oil because they have higher and more materialistic living standards.
-Difference in industries within nations causes a difference in oil consumptions. Creation of polymer products, transportation etc. all require oil.
-Some governments subsidize and encourage to increase oil consumption, examples are China and India.

Global Production & Consumption
Hubbert Peak
Geopolitics & its effects
Nations that produce oil may reduce or even stop oil production and supply in order to threaten other nations to compromise in political conflicts.
Example of geopolitics
Prediction vs Reality
What is Peak OIl?
=>The point in time when the maximum rate of crude oil extraction is reached, after which the rate of extraction is expected to begin to decline.

What happened
- Peak oil is a time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached

- After this, it was expected that the rate of production enter a terminal decline
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

An intergovernmental organization comprising 12 oil-producing nation

- Founded in 1960
- After US law imposed quotas on Venezuelan and Persian Gulf oil imports in flavor of the Canadian and Mexican oil industry

Organization objective:
Coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of member countries and ensure the stabilization of oil markets

- In order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumer
- Stable income to producer
- A fair return on capital to those investing in the petroleum industry

-In 1973, there is a conflict between Arab and Israel, Arab decide to reduce the oil supply to the big country such as America and western Europe , attempt to lessen their support from the Israel , That led to the energy shortage of those big country and it will affect the oil production and it is known as energy insecurity

-Russia threatening to cut off natural gas pipelines to Ukraine recently during conflicts.
OPEC is governmental organization that are comprising 12 oil-producing nation
Why is the prediction of peak oil production so important?
=>Economic growth requires growth in our energy supply.

=>When peak oil arrives we will have less total energy so economic growth will slow and probably decline.

Why the prediction of peak oil production will occur vary so widely?
It takes six years on average from first discovery for a very large-scale project to start producing oil. It is understandable as new data becomes available and it is also difficult to balance the supply and demand.
Saudi Arabia
The reserves remaining at the end of any year are decided by the production in that year. The result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if production were to continue at that level.
United Arab Emirates
value of petroleum exports: 118.08 billion dollars
crude oil production: 2,652,000 barrels per day
oil demand: 638,000 barrels per day
middle east country: more natural resources to extract and obtain oil
value of petroleum exports: 94.03 billion dollars
oil demand: 803,000 barrels per day
crude oil production: 2,942,000 barrels per day
middle east country: generally similar to most middle east countries, but slightly higher production than UAE
Trend in Developed Countries
De-industrialization and increasing energy efficiency resulted in a relatively modest increases in demand compared with NICs
value of petroleum exports: 112.93 billion dollars
oil demand: 377,000 barrels per day
crude oil production: 2,978,000 barrels per day
despite very small geographical size, it produces even more than UAE and Iraq
Trend in NICs
Increasing energy demand by the fastest rate
Trend in Developed Countries
Struggled to fund their energy requirements
considerable variation in their rate of growth
Factors affecting their energy demand
1. Rate of economic development
2. Rate of population growth
high income and middle income-
purchase sufficient energy
value for exports: 72.78 billion dollars

oil demand: 351,000 barrels per day

crude oil production: 12,000,000 barrels per day
Algeria economic growth rate has been mostly driven by the oil sector
Price of Oil remained high at between $80 - $100 per barrel

Compensate the world's poorest countries for the high price

Affluent countries should pay high price, combat climate change
Define the reserves/
production ratio
Figure 8 shows the share of world crude oil reserves. OPEC proven crude oil reserves show that Saudi Arabia shares over 1/4 (25.8%) of their crude oil. Venezuela reserves 16.8 %. Iran reserves 13.4%, Iraq, Quwait, UAE, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Algeria, Angola and Ecuador share the other half of oil reserves. To highlight, Algeria, Angola and Ecuador consume less than 3% of OPEC crude oil. The graph on the left shows that 21% of that crude oil (271 billion barrels) are non-OPEC crude oil based. The other 79% are OPEC crude oil based (1023 billion barrels)
value for exports: 71.95 billion dollars
oil demand:94000 barrels per day
crude oil production:17.040.000 barrels per day

Former Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez
OPEC goals:
ensure the price of oil remained high at between $80 and $100 a barrel
affluent countries should pay a high price in order to combat climate change
a method should be found to compensate the world's poorest countries for the high price
value for export: 23.9billion dollars
oil demand:264,000 barrels per day
crude oil production:504,000 barrels per day
-Apart from oil, Ecuador also exports banana, shrimps, coffee and fish

Question 2.
OPEC share of world crude oil reserves, 2008
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