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Macro Trends and Job Predictions for 2020
Transcript of Macro Trends and Job Predictions for 2020
Five macro trends will affect large impact on the healthcare system in 2020: including: the economy, demographics, personal lifestyles and behavior, technology, and federal and state policies.
Three major demographic shifts will take
place by 2020:
1. Population age shift
2. Racial and Ethnic population composition
3. Geographic population shift
Personal Lifestyles and Behaviors
The way we live our lives creates the need for more healthcare. Life-style choices such as drug abuse, excessive alcohol consumption, careless driving, failure to use seat-belts, inactivity, and poor eating habits are all sufficient to drive up health care costs.
Currently, there is a dramatic behavioral change that is ravaging the United States along with the rest of the world: Obesity
Federal and State Policies
The Affordable Care Act (ACA), which became law in 2010, is the clearly the most important change to the structure of the U.S. healthcare system since the creation of the Medicaid and Medicare programs in 1965 (Health Affairs, 2010). The ACA included numerous provisions that have impacted the design and delivery of health care including changes to Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement, coverage of preventative benefits (e.g., childhood vaccines, contraceptives), closure of the so-called doughnut hole in the Medicare Part D prescription drug plan, and expansion of programs including the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and Medicaid (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, n.d.).
Economic growth by 2020 and beyond is projected to be well below the average of the past few decades (CBO, 2014). Low inflation may also act as a drag on the healthcare market. In short - don't expect significant growth in healthcare spending.
The use of nurse practitioners and physician assistants is also expected to increase over the next 10 years as a way to reduce the cost of providing care while increasing the number of patients who may be treated (BLS, 2012).
Population Health Managers - Population health management focuses partly on the high-risk patients who generate the majority of health costs, it systematically addresses the preventive and chronic care needs of every patient (Institute for Health Technology Transformation, 2012). Healthcare managers in charge of population management will have to opportunity to work along the side of patient’s and communities to make a more effective and efficient healthcare system.
Technology is giving more patients access to their own health information, while also allowing doctors to streamline their work flow with electronic medical records.
By the year 2020 patients will most likely see everything electronically documented as well as most of their care given by doctors, remotely, such as in an eICU.
Electronic Intensive Care Units (eICU’s) are already in many hospitals across the country. An eICU uses healthcare technology to monitor critical care patients from in the same building or even from a different hospital across the country and will create new jobs for healthcare managers as well.
Obesity is a complex population health issue and requires specialized care delivery (Murillo, n.d.). That is why the job prospect will continue to grow for public health managers, primary physicians and orthopedics.
Increases in the number of Affordable Care
Organizations (ACOs), which are provided incentives for managing the care of Medicare patients more efficiently, could result in the need for more case managers and patient-care coordinators (Silow-Carrol & Edwards, 2013).
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. (2014). Health reform’s Medicaid expansion.
(Webpage). Retrieved from http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3819
Health Affairs. (2010, May 20). Health policy brief: Health reform’s changes in Medicare. Retrieved from http://www.healthaffairs.org/healthpolicybriefs/brief.php?brief_id=17
Institute for Health Technology Transformation (2012). Population health management: A roadmap for provider-based automation in a new era of healthcare. Retrieved from Institute for Health Technology Transformation: http://ihealthtran.com /pdf/PHMReport.pdf
Murillo, M., (n.d.). Three things you should know about the future of health care jobs. Retrieved from http://www.healthadministrationdegrees.com/articles/health-care-jobs/
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. (n.d.). Key Features of the Affordable Care Act By Year. [Webpage]. Retrieved on October 30, 2014 from http://www.hhs.gov/healthcare/facts/timeline/timeline-text.htmlSilow-Carrol, S., & Edwards, J.N. (2013). Early adopters of the accountable care model. A field report on improvements in health care delivery. [Report]. The Commonwealth Fund. Retrieved from www.commonwealthfund.org