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Summer Cropping outlook 2017-18

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by

Jon Welsh

on 12 September 2017

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Transcript of Summer Cropping outlook 2017-18

2017 Summer cropping Climate Outlook
What's happened?
Irrigators - average to below ETo: Oct-Dec
Thank you
General Circulation Models
Analogue or 'like' years
Summary of Spring/summer guidance
SOI Phase - rainfall outlook
CliMate App; How likely?

Analogue years: Which years are like 2017?

SOI Phase prediction: 3-monthly rainfall outlook
Statistical model outlook
Abstract
Agenda

Niño4 vs Goondi ETo
Acknowledgements: Dr Peter McIntosh Formerly CSIRO Marine Research
Current conditions
What does history say?
Crop ETo & climate drivers
GCM Models
Watching multi-week models
How did the models go over winter?
Survey all 4 models-concurrently
AIM: look for trends & model consensus

Friday is the best day to survey multi-week models
Using multi-week models
Model Summary - 12 Sept 2017
Wrapping up
jon@agecon.com.au
m. 0458 215 335
No
clear signal
for summer climate
Some optimism showing with recent
La Niña
/neutral sh
i
ft
Short term 'weather' drivers need monitoring in these neutral years

GCM is a prediction based on a simulation of physical processors by 'super' computers
probably the most useful, but the least accurate
Planning in neutral years are difficult (than normal!)
Keep an eye on the Cotton e-news for the latest info
Aligning multi-week models
can be useful in spotting a "break"
CliMate - How likely?
Image courtesy Sharna Holman
High air pressure and a dry 6-months
A warm, dry trend in El Niño 'watch' mode back in April/May
50/50, as with most models in a neutral year.
Scroll through the forecast window to look for optimal skill ratings
Check your rainfall records for those years
Sep-Nov: based on consistently positive phase
Consistently positive?
Sep-Nov: based on consistently near zero
Summer cropping: outlook summary
No
clear signal
for planting rains (YET!)
La Niña movement
encouraging for moisture supply
Indian Ocean Dipole, although neutral pushing into
positive territory
not helping
Some GCMs and statistical models encouraging (SOI and 2007 year) for
wetter end to spring & summer
Keep an EYE on the ball!
What's the Nino 4 prediction?
www.tropicaltidbits.com
www.iri.columbia.edu
Crop ETo - connection with climate
Ref: FAO 56, www.fao.org
Full transcript