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The Future

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by

Corin Somerville

on 1 November 2013

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Transcript of The Future

Today
Today
Today
Today
Today
Today
Today
Today
Today
2014
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2015
Digital convergence
Massively multitasking
People are constantly multitasking, receiving multiple simultaneous streams of content. Young people's attention spans are so short now that a single content stream is frustrating for them.
Big Data Allows the Machines to Take Over
A large amount of cognitive work is done by machines, but we are no less busy!
The Quantified Self
We will track and measure every action, interaction, emotion, physical state and every parameter will be used for self improvement and medical diagnosis and personalisation.
The Rise and Disappearance of Mobile
As David Armano said, the future is not about mobile, it is about mobility. We will no longer see mobile handsets, but computing will all be mobile.
All Media is Digital
All media channels served via the Internet in a single, connected ecosystem.

We no longer buy on content but individuals, across all media.
The Technological Singularity
Artificial Intelligence exceeds the maximum potential of human intelligence. We can upload ourselves, people never need to invent anything, technological and scientific progress speeds up... hopefully!
Brain-to-brain communication
Cranial implants allow for virtual telepathy and a constant connection to the Internet without the need of a computer.
Consumer devices look nothing like those of today.
Many products are downloaded and printed at home.

Gaming is as big an industry as film.
Biotech will revolutionise medicine and maybe save the world!
Synthetic biology; lab grown organisms and antibiodies.

Stemcell treatments.
Transportation
Transportation will be electric, driverless and probably not owned.

Long-distance travel will be fast and cheap.
Young people are already consuming multiple streams of content at the same time
2016
2017
Nobody (under 35) watches TV without also watching >2 additional screens
2018
2019
2020
Wearable computing approaches 100% penetration for young professionals, meaning these people are multitasking at all times
RTB is increasingly part of digital media buys
RTB combines its machine learning with that of Search and paid social
More and more metrics are fed into machine learning, including e-commerce
2016
2017
Media buying is partly automated but people still needed to make 'soft' judgements
2018
2019
2020
Connection of data sets and artificial intelligence mean media planning and buying can be almost entirely automated
People are already tracking fitness, health, finances, sleep, energy consumption etc.
2016
Commercially available biometric sensors; a dramatic leap in the kinds of data that can be tracked
2017
2018
The Quantified Self becomes mainstream thanks to sensors built in to wearable computers
2019
2020
The proliferation of data makes gamification seem viable again. Marketers employ FOGG's behavioural model, Skinner's box etc.
Mobile has exceeded desktops and laptops (separately) as the primary Internet access point for Chinese people
4G is launched in China. Global LTE protocols are adopted so all handsets have access
Mobile exceeds laptops and PCs combined as the primary access point in China
2016
2017
2018
The mobile phone is all but abandoned in favour of wearable computing
2019
2020
LCD billboards exceed static spots

40% of TVs shipped are 'smart'
2016
Introduction of small, contextual digital screens
2017
2018
2019
2020
Global Internet reach exceeds that of TV
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2020
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All voice and video communication is delivered over the Internet, reducing mobile phone bills so data plans
"Social media" as a concept has ceased to exist as every digital action is now socialised
The next generation of games consoles is launched; moving beyond games to other entertainment content
Google Glass is launched to the public

Smart watches finally become popular
Printable electronics reach mainstream, revolutionising printed media
3D printing becomes a mainstream consumer product. Subscription models are popular but piracy is rife
Gesture control is being replaced with brainwave control
4K TV is commonplace and is reaching the limits of what people can perceive

Video games with truly lifelike 3D CGI
Soylent launches; replacing meals for many people

Printed meat produced and eaten
Personal gene sequencing available for under $100
Cybernetic contact lenses commercially available; projecting a HUD and measuring the wearer's vitals
Anti-obesity pill is made available
Bionic eyes are being transplanted into people, restoring eyesight in the blind and improving vision for the sighted
Today
2014
2015
Electric car sales exceed those of combustion engine cars in key markets
Driverless cars become available. Freight transport and taxi companies are earliest adopters
How the digital world will look after 2020
See you in the future!
Life is becoming more and more digital, but at the same time digital is becoming closer and closer to life.

Beyond 2020 many of the the barriers between the virtual and real worlds will be invisible or non-existent.

Massively multitasking beyond 2020
2030: cranial implants provide a direct and constant connection between the web and our brains. As a result, attention is never focused 100% on one thing.
Big Data after 2020
Algorithms exist that can find genuine insights within data through "brute force" meaning a large amount of 'soft' judgements can be done my computers more better and faster than people.
The Quantified Self after 2020
Anonymised personal data is shared openly; as a result epidemics are recognised early, traffic congestion is reduced, government policies are made and evaluated based on popular data...
The Rise and Disappearance of Mobile
Flexible electronics and bio-interfaces mean the mobile is replaced with wearable and implanted computing with continuous connections to the cloud.
All Media is Digital
Every media channel is digitised and serving content through the Internet allows for more cost effective distribution, on demand content, advertising served to specific audiences, cross channel retargeting, holistic measuring...
The Technological Singularity
2030 - 2045: Moore's Law reaches close to vertical, AI exceeds the maximum potential of human intelligence.
Brain-to-brain communication
Cranial implants allow for virtual telepathy between people as well as interfacing with the Internet.
Consumer devices beyond 2020
2021 wireless electricity is reaching critical mass.

Nanofabricators and ultimately matter fabricators.
Biotech beyond 2020
Synthetic biology; lab grown organisms and antibiodies.

Stemcell treatments.
Transportation after 2020
Elon Musk's Hyperloop revolutionises long-distance mass transit.

Supersonic flight returns.
IBM's Watson has already beaten humans at Jeopardy.
Mobile users have access powerful AI through their phones
Medical cranial implants are use for certain neurological conditions. Other forms of implants are in testing
A $1,000 computer has the same processing power as the human brain
Robots routinely carry out surgery
If our audience is distracted, our advertising has to attract attention.

The message needs to be delivered quickly; slow-build creative no longer works.

Position in break becomes more important.

Make online videos work harder by
making them interactive.
If our audience is distracted, our advertising has to attract attention.

With multiple screens it is easier to ignore advertising, branded content, product placement and other forms of 'soft advertising' may be be necessary to reach our consumers.
We should be collecting data on everything we can today (within what is legal/ethical) and clearly communicate policies to consumers.
Begin to involve legal, IT and othher stakeholders.
Store all data in a singe location
Data collected today should be stored beyond only evaluating a campaign; what may not be useful today could be mined tomorrow.

Have a policy on who owns data that the organisation collects
Our access to personal data
will be limited, but people will be
more open to sharing if they receive something in return; see Kevin Kelly's privacy-customisation continuum.
Brands will have to have a strategy about what data we might share with consumers about their consumption of our product.

Expectations of transparency
will grow.
How it might change media
What we can do today to prepare
How it might change media
How it might change media
How it might change media
How it might change media
How it might change media
How it might change media
How it might change media
How it might change media
How it might change media
What we can do today to prepare
What we can do today to prepare
What we can do today to prepare
What we can do today to prepare
What we can do today to prepare
What we can do today to prepare
What we can do today to prepare
What we can do today to prepare
What we can do today to prepare
Set aside a test budget for mobile now to gain early mover advantages later.
We should also include mobile (and tablets) into multiscreen planning.
Mobile will be important over the next few years and there will be early mover advantages; we should therefore adopt a mobile forward strategy today.
Hire/appoint someone within the organisation who understands mobile to champion it.
When everything becomes digital it will not make sense to have separate traditional / digital specialists. Everyone will need to understand and work in a digital way.
Cultivate long-term relationships with online video channels today to benefit when they make the move to TV.
Involve all marketers in digital campaigns to ensure people are getting experience.
The more precisely we can segment users today the better we will be able to target them across different channels when all channels are digital.
Embrace machine learning and provide it with access to data generated from as many sources as possible; in particular ecommerce.
Consumer adoption of driverless cars
High cost of oil and improved recharging infrastructure boost electric car acceptance
Driverless cars will mean people are consuming content during their commute. They will also be exposed to more OOH as they won't need to concentrate on the road.

So let's take a look at how we'll get there...
A computer passes the Turing test
Store data across all operations.

And as with Big Data ensure that data we are collecting today is stored beyond only evaluating a campaign.
...and how each development might change media
Sending messages directly to people's brains will come with strong ethical barriers. As a result most messaging will become 'pull' and will have to work hard to convince people to want to consume it.
Though we aren't restricted now from delivering advertising, we will benefit from learning what sorts of content causes people to *want* to consume.
Gaming is becoming a legitimate art form, the games industry is a multi-billion dollar industry, and gaming has huge reach and stickiness.
Yet currently very few advertisers partner with video games developers to place their brands or products in games.
We should consider branded gaming content along side branded video content.
It may be some time before most games developers start looking to partner with brands, but we can educate ourselves on what our target are playing.
Ensure policies concerning customer data are compatible with the possibility of sharing data.

Start tracking as much as possible where consumers are interacting with the brand (RTB, operational, social...)
Create content that people actively want to consume
Start storing data, in a single location
Ensure company policies are compatible with the era of data
Become mobile-forward
Move away from traditional-vs-digital thinking to integration

Tesla open enough charging stations for US coast-to-coast travel
Digital magazines exceed printed editions
In summary:
The majority of shopping is e-commerce (even if it takes place in store)
Almost all transactions are cashless
Sources and further reading
www.futuretimeline.net

www.kurzweilai.net A site dedicated to documenting the advancement of artificial intelligence by one of the forerunners in the field.

http://envisioningtech.com/envisioning2012/ A simple visualisation of predictions in various tech fields.

www.bigthink.com Videos from experts in a variety of fields, including futurology, theoretical physics, artificial intelligence and philosophy.

www.longnow.org A foundation dedicated to long term thinking.

www.reddit.com/r/futurology A 'subReddit' dedicated to futurology on the popular discussion and sharing site.

Fogg's behavioural model: http://www.behaviormodel.org/

Skinner's box: http://www.rationalskepticism.org/psychology/are-video-games-putting-you-in-a-skinner-box-t3669.html
Full transcript