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Flu For All

Statistics Project

Rosemary Hernandez

on 20 December 2012

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Transcript of Flu For All

Flu For All
By: Brandon B.
Tania C.
Rosemary H.
& Leo L. Rounds in which we got
infected Statement of the Problem Follow Me The scenario set up for this
experiment is that in a party,
one person was infected with
the flu and by sharing his/her cup with
other people, others were infected.
In "Flu for All" we measured the
probability of one infected cup (#12)
infecting other cups by using an indicator
(phenolphthalein) and a weak Sodium
Hydroxide solution. At the end of the
experiment (which had 4 rounds of mixing one cup with three different cups), the indicator showed that all the cups (1-15) had been infected by either direct or indirect contact. Assumptions of the
Experiment We assumed that by the end of the 4 rounds, the majority of the cups would be infected.
We assumed that the chemicals that were utilized were strong enough to infect another cup by simply mixing them.
We assumed that the indicator we used would clearly indicate the infected cups.
We assumed that our original cup as well as the cups with which we mixed, would be randomly chosen without any bias towards the cup number. Tania- 2nd round
Rosemary- 2nd round
Leo- 2nd round
Brandon- 1st round Conversions to Mathematical terms Solving the mathematical relationships Our experiment was made only with 15 total cups, out of which all were infected. If the experiment had been made with 30 cups, the probability of all the cups being infected would be much smaller. This would occur because as the number of cups increases, there is less of a chance that all the cups could be infected directly or indirectly (by mixing with a cup that was not the original infected cup but was mixed with it, thus getting infected) by just four rounds of mixing. Rosemary: (Cup #1)
Round #1: 7, 11 , 14
Round #2: 3, 9 , 4
Round #3: 5, 12, 2
Round #4: 8, 6, 10
Round #5: 13, 15 Brandon: Cup #3 Round #1: 12,5,13
Round #2: 1,6,9
Round #3: 4,2,10
Round #4: 14,7,8 Tania ( Cup # 6) Round #1: 8,15,10 Round #2: 9,7,3 Round #3: 2,11,14 Round #4: 1,4,5 Leo (CUP # 9) Round #1: 2,4,11 Round #2: 6,1,3 Round #3: 13,12,15 Round #4: 8,7,5 The probability a cup would get infected in the 1st round is 1 out of 14 (1/14).
The probability a cup would get infected on the rounds after the first round would be 100 % because the infected cup (#12) spread the infection among all the other cups and members. Prediction Germs :D Germs :/ Germs :o Go away youre going to infect us !!
Dont Share Drinks an important message by Mr. King Germ
Thank you for all those in attendance and for your attention
it is greatly appreciated by our group. Have a great vacations and be safe <3 I Whats up !!! Sit Back and Relax for a great amazing
presentation i love all you (: .995(7/ 14)+.005( 5/14)=.50
or 50% chance any person in the experiment
will catch the flu throughthe first rounds. But
since all cups mix with the rest of the cups
everyone will eventually get infected with
the disease. In the first round there is a
3/14 chance a cup will be infected.
Full transcript