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Transcript of Scenario Planning
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So what is Scenario Planning?
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What is Scenario Planning?
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Welcome employees, to the Apple Inc. Head office!
The iPhone 5s
How are we going to introduce it effectively into the current marketplace?
what is Scenario Planning?
Scenario Planning is...
* A Strategic thinking tool- What will our future look like?
* Creating balance between under prediction and over prediction- reaching a middle ground.
* "Depict possible futures, but not the strategies to deal with them".
* Selecting several possible futures and desigingn business processes to be prepared for responding to them (i.e. natural disaster & loss of suppliers)
When should Scenario Planning be used in an organisation?
• There have been a number of costly surprises in the past
• Poor innovation and generation of new opportunities
• Competition is high and competitors are using this tool.
• The industry is about to or is experiencing significant change
• There are a number of different opinions from stakeholders- many of which have merit
Apples Current Environment
Competition from Samsung, HTC smartphones
New users of iPhones i.e. Youth/ younger generation
* New regulations with new elected government that could impact?
Would scenario planning be beneficial in an environment like this?
Vote now on GoSoapBox!
. use Scenario planning based on the conditions in the external environment we face?
Steps in Scenario Planning
Step 1- Define the scope
Step 6- Check for Consistency and Plausibility
Step 8- Identify research Needs
- Are there any blind spots?
- We can do further research
Step 10- Evolve towards decision scenarios
- Repeat steps 1-8
- Are they relevant?
- Are they consistent?
- Covers a range of scenarios or just variations of one theme?
- Concerned with long term benefits of the company?
Step 7- Develop Learning Scenarios
- General themes should start to appear
- The goal is to identify themes that are strategically relevant and possible outcomes of these
step 9- develop Quantitative methods
- Need to reexamine the internal consistencies of our scenarios and assess whether certain interactions should be formalized with a quantitative model.
- Help us to measure the consequences of various scenarios.
Scenarios Apple Inc. has devised:
Discuss now on GoSoapBox!
What benefits does
have for an organisation?
* Increased use of Smartphone technology from younger generations.
* Global financial crisis occurs again in 5-10 years, impacting supply & demand
* Reduced cost of smart technology with more advanced supplier techniques
* Apple iPhones will no longer be the preferred smart phone with the evolution of other devices from Samsung and HTC
- Are the trends compatible with the time frame?
- Are the uncertainties able to occur together?
- Are the major stakeholders placed in a position they do not like and can change?
Looks at how broad and wide the time frame is, the areas in which you would like to conduct business as well as the competitive environment as well as other internal and external factors.
Pin point and look after those who have an invested interest in the organization and its goals such as employees, shareholders and customers.
Step 2- Identify the major stakeholder
Factors that would influence the organization and the way it operates as well as the goals that they strive to achieve such as the scope they wish to target. These influences come from legal, economic, environmental and competitive factors.
Step 3 Identify Basic trends
Uncertainties that come with changing basic trends create questions as well as areas for further investigation and attention.
Step 4 Identify Key uncertainties
These consist of relating basic trends identified with the key uncertainties and therefore leading to scenarios with differing variables and therefore a broad scope of scenarios that organizations need to plan for.
Step 5-Construct Initial Scenario Themes