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[US] Surviving the machine revolution: how to become the digital marketer of the future

In the year 2026, the world has changed beyond recognition. The simplistic Internet of your time has long-since evolved into something too complex for most marketers to understand. Only those equipped with the right skills survive.
by

Jono Alderson

on 26 September 2017

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Transcript of [US] Surviving the machine revolution: how to become the digital marketer of the future

Only four types of brands excel in the future...
Often acts as a management API.
Wave 1
Your Kindle is

Barnes & Noble introduces personal librarian service
The New High Street
If you're just chasing conversions, rather than consumers,
expect to start losing market share
.
Invest in LTV modeling
, and make it one of your critical KPIs.
Wave 2
The New Marketplace
Uber Network launches
There are no more traditional USPs
. Price, distance, size, budget, market, platform, model can be disrupted overnight.
The best product and services win.
Your competitive advantage is your
UVP, your presence,
and the comparative power+flexibility of your marketing stack
. Without all three, you fail.


In a radical move, B&N reinvent themselves as a "personal assistant" service to stem losses to online sales.
Wave 3
Personal Assistants
Personal assistants make *me*
However, less voice becomes more commonplace.
Less friction (when it works)!
All advertising and marketing assumes that we can interrupt.

How does this work when the consumer isn't involved in the decision?

Personal assistants will infer preference from previous interactions.

How do you define, measure and chase success six months before the consumer reaches the point of purchase?
They announce a trial partnership with Amazon, to use data around reader purchases and preferences. Psychical inventory powered by reviews.
Repositioning to make book stores feel more like "Apple stores", and to manage retention and consumer value growth on a commission structure
Best Buy
Ties into Steam and Playstation Network APIs for usage and preference data; offer intelligent recommendations
Builds on preference modeling to extend into hardware (mobile phones) and media (music, video)
Competitors have worst xmas trading ever; share values plummet.
Diminishing highstreet footfall continues to reduce impulse and gift purchasing.
Fewer customers searching and exploring at research phase of funnel - already have relationships with brands who understand their needs. Acquisition costs rocket.
Expansion of API-based services disrupts delivery industry
Integrates seamlessly into
everything
as the default travel and delivery service
Aggressive lobbying succeeds in changing restrictive ride-sharing regulations - Uber Pool is reinvented
Uber's secret weapons
1. Liquidity *
2. Algorithm
3. Utilisation
4. API
Amazon wins on
"anything in a box"
Instant delivery services; anything you want, instantly.
Other brands react, and fight to own the customer
New tricks
1. Vans & Lorries
2. Access & Coverage
3. Invisible integration
4. Advertising
Extension of Amazon Dash, Amazon Pantry and AmazonFresh into auto-purchase for connected devices and services.
Expansion from "anything in a box" to "everything as a service".
Automated warehouse systems lowers barrier-to-entry for small/individual retailers. Further fragmentation of the market.
Amazon open thousands of book retail stores
Frontage is cheap, because other brands are struggling
Loss-leading, "bid on everything" mentality, like they did with paid ads
Persistent presence gradually changes mentality around shopping
No more "nipping to the supermarket for bread"
Millions of new entrepreneurs come online
Ease and cost of access to market is lower than ever.
Artisan product revolution accelerates dramatically!
Rising availability, lowering cost (of commodity products/services)

Marketplaces become the new marketplaces
Too little, too late!
Disruptive products and services aren't constrained geographically
Western markets have more disposable income; other markets have lower costs, and full market access
Lowering barrier to entry to become a creator and vendor
Activity is app-based (selling via SnapChat, etc), self-built apps, or within third party marketplaces
Most transactions in cryptocurrencies or market credit.
The internet
ATENDEES OF THIS EVENT MAY BE AT RISK.

Delegates should take care to protect themselves from mind scans, botnet attacks, and dangerous thoughts.

Emergency protective materials and instructions have been provided for your assistance.
INSTRUCTIONS
WARNING!
IMPORTANT
3d printers in transport & community hubs
Template marketplace (and black market) takes off
Printed goods flood marketplaces
Technology murders capitalism!*
*3d printing + IOT + hub devices
about to end.
Platforms scramble to incentivise adoption
revolution, again?
Musk is not what he appears to be
reading you back...
Nonsense
Smart brands invest in sophisticated ecrm and marketing systems.
New interfaces rely on APIs, sensors and 'hubs'.

'Hub' and personal devices are data-collectors and system managers.

More than just 'interfaces' and tools.

(Work/Home/Me variants, too!)

They serve to connect your needs to the systems which supply them.
Wave 4
You cannot afford to create
friction
. How will you earn engagement - technically, logistically, and effectively?


Reduced costs and increased efficiency from uber-based infrastructure used by couriers.
You don't need a big ecommerce website any more?
Conversational interfaces are a fad. Better, diverse and tailored interfaces aren't.
"Products as a service" becomes the new ownership model.

Users subscribe to end services.

Consumers become 'investors' in brands and products (especially in Marketplaces)


eats its own tail
The Internet of Things
Redesign your organisation and brand to
develop experience-driven products.
The Hub - a different types of IOT device!
Google You
Apple Kit range
MySamsung
Amazon Echo
MS Live Account
Major 'hub' players
"AMP STRATEGY"!
NOBODY NEEDS AN
Our consumption of content becomes increasingly more fragmented. Less and less happens on (your) websites.
New channels come and go, constantly.
Your tech stack needs to understand that your website is only *one* of the outputs of a central database and API
Your current App revolution, and AMP + similar, is the beginning of a monumental shift to 'distributed content'.
cc Pierre Far
Become/remain deeply technically capable
. Learn new languages and stacks, (Angular/Node, MySQL, PHP/.NET) or get left behind doing 'oldschool' marketing.
http://bit.ly/25RuUyQ
Jarrod Tuckwell
Your world is
JavaScript revolution (Angular2, etc) catalyses adoption or failure
This is the beginning of the 'experience age' (for proactive interactions).

Platforms' understand gap of *me* vs digital me closes.
Identity = Advertising.

http://tcrn.ch/1WWDTIG
Grow outwards
into the consumer ecosystem, not inwards to your own website/app/platform/store(s).
Two directions for insurance...
New Marketing & You
*same as AirBNB
Google Now, in particular, sits
closer to the heart of the device/
profile/identity than others; makes it much easier to seamlessly transact with other services.
Meanwhile...

Google remain a leading voice in standardizing schemas and mechanics for the physical web & IOT.

Also, this centralisation (and push-based interactions) solves for some IOT security issues.
Ad blocking kills the editorial web
, and creates fragmentation challenges in apps.

Interstitials (and identity harvesting) the only viable solution.

PageFair & Google Contributor etc fail to reach critical adoption.


Mixed reality isn't game-changing - just an interface layer.

However.. empowers self-service, enhanced experiences.
Supermarkets unite to create a profiling layer similar to Experian; by pooling behavioral and shopping data. They're all stronger & smarter. Better consumer experiences.

Tesco ties insurance to shopping behaviour. Data sold. Programmatic ads saying get tested for cancer. Accidentally targeting soon-to-expire relatives. Target all over again. Privacy and legal mess.

Those who are large, willing and resourced to tactically create and manage microbrands
Microsoft owns the Work Hub , Apple disrupt with the quantified 'us' by connecting & sharing hub data


PRODUCTION
FULFILMENT
DELIVERY
COMMS
ASPIRATION
EXPERIENCE
}
Facebook's power play; the
(in device) ad platform.

Unique advantage; solved for UID hashing (unique advantage; FB auth and identification done through browser, stored to device), and FB Open Graph aligns to action types to act as ad hooks.
Privacy concerns result in a pivot on targeting; new programmatic marketing based on abstract behavioral labels, not attributes.
VASTLY more effective.
less and less involved
Those which can simultaneously create, manage and fulfill their own demand (or excel at production)
Those which provide uniquely valuable and/or aspirational experiences, and who are agile enough to earn and own consumers.
Drone delivery never goes mainstream

...But microdrones make great senors
Network-specific services are connected
and smart enough to bypass the research process (!) - become super affiliates
To do:
Change course of history!
Commodity service brands, and "thin affiliates" die; bypassed entirely.

"Supplier" tier brands actually experience growth.
Brands who are 10x more efficient than competitors through machine learning, attribution and behavioral analysis
It's based on prediction. Better predictions mean more people get turned down. More fragmentation = better service... but it breaks the current industry model of "bigger = better"
Insurance is a great example of a radically transformed sector.
App market somewhat revitalized due to more diverse and targeted needs, but still plateaus.

Needs are generally met by Hub devices and meta-apps (including app streaming).
For advertising, it's all about lead gen, sales, conversions, fulfillment.
Brands scrambles for loyalty.

Increasingly insane discounts and benefits for retention, recommendation, and utilisation.
Too little, too late, in lieu of having a value proposition.
Can't gamify loyalty!
Fighting for data sources, like NHS patient intel
Smart brands use partnership and connected data to disrupt relationships.

"It's raining, you're tired and on your own this evening - here's a cheesy horror you haven't seen, which your friends all liked. Want 20% off pizza?"
For example, all my clothing is automated.

My IOT-enabled washing machine reads the chip in my jeans which notify my hub device that they're approaching their expected end of life.

My 'me hub' grants on-request view privileges to the photos on my phone. Sees me frequently wearing last year's fashion.

API push to Hub, onto preferred fashion app/service. Find closest match in typical spend ranges, purchase, deliver.

App monitors median happiness over time in newly published photos, when I'm wearing that outfit.

Huge implications on discovery and loyalty.
Personal assistant services are turbo-charged, when they get push/pull integration with hub data.
Moore's law continues to hold true (until quantum computing)
All the way to the top!
Inputs for machine learning training sets
It's not about writing better software, it's about processing larger data sets!
The world is run by the super-orgs; the hub-owners and need-owners, who absorb or subjugate other parts of the ecosystem.
PRODUCTION: Samsung
FULFILMENT: Amazon
DELIVERY: Uber
COMMS: Google
ASPIRATION: Apple
Big players in other markets make similar move, but lack the global impact
Google & Amazon continue to reduce cost and barriers to entry to machine learning services
Google's Hub devices and data already understand need, context, and the market.

No marketing agency needed.*

*Creative, alignment, ideation, but not execution/management.
Large scale unemployment, initially in eastern markets but quickly expanding to western service industries.
*How do you understand *why*?
The new paradigm

Marketing is about
demand creation

Advertising is about
demand fulfillment

Branding is about
demand retention
For marketing...

SEO, ATL and awareness generation are all about the top of the funnel. Discovery and affinity. NOT sales and conversions (bi-product).
Compound multi-touch attribution and forecasting
Fulfillment automation
Informed creative*
Can we change the course of history?

Who operates the payment gateway?
How does it know what's in your freezer?
Shopping is leisure!
Are these really "needs", or reflections of businesses and their markets?
Brand is all about martech, and experience.

How well can you segment, support, and surprise?
How do you understand value, and make the right tactical nudges?

How do you differentiate? How do you improve experiences, or create new ones? How do you align this to your commercial model?
Too
Fast!
Entertainment = fulfillment
Is this good? Bad?
...Intentional?
The only meaningful and impactful brands for digital marketers?
ALL of this is driven by business. By companies. By profit. But is it good? Do we want it? Do we need it?
Probability increasing...
This is already everywhere; only distributed processing power has limited impact
Too
Slow!
So what do you do next?
Decide the world you want to live in, and create it.
Start picking sides.
Brands and marketers must
be the best they can possibly be
, to avoid getting absorbed or steamrollered.
You have a choice to
look beyond just beating your competitors
- that behaviour fuels this dystopia (even if you win)!

Perfect your
attribution concepts
, and optimise for each individual touch point.
Thanks!
@jonoalderson
Full transcript