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Ronald Storm

on 19 December 2013

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Transcript of Observe

Collect current information from as many sources as practically possible
Analyze this information, and use it to update your current reality
Determine a course of action
Follow through on your decision
Situational Appraisal
What is occurring
What is the potential threat
What decisions need to be made
What plans could be implemented
What bothers us about the event

Kepner-Tregoe Approach
Analytical Support to the Intel Domain
Leveraging Applied Mathematics

Decision environment dynamic and highly time dependent
Need to manage great quantities of operational information
Understanding situational confidence is critical when considering action

Intelligence community highly dependent on experienced support
Operators bring evidence based knowledge from past events
Provides insight into what is and what may be happening

Any improvement on efficiency and/or effectiveness may return significant impact on using organization
Time savings may be found in aggregating data and in understanding outcomes
Understanding options, value of ‘next collect’, likely outcomes, and confidence level within the operational framework improves decision making

Need to m

Statement of Need
Applied mathematics can provide additional support to intel community
Predictive analytics allow user to leverage vast amounts of data
Provides confidence metrics to expected outcomes
Creates methodology for calculating the value of the ‘next collect’

Algorithms cannot be used in isolation or independently of experts
Best applied when combined with subject matter expertise
NOT a black box approach to decision support; human insight is critical

Creating the right solution based on the question/problem presented
Many tools to choose from – Bayesian belief networks, machine learning, decision analysis, multi-variate data analysis, discriminant analysis, etc.

Leveraging Analytics
Process / Structure
Describe the Problem
Establish Possible Causes
Most Probably Causes
Verify True Root Cause
Decision Tree
OHAP Cycle
Relevant Data
Full transcript