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Theories of Change in Peacebuilding

Chapter 11 in "Conflict Assessment & Peacebuilding Planning"

Lisa Schirch

on 20 May 2014

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Transcript of Theories of Change in Peacebuilding

Theories of Change
Chapter 11 in "Conflict Assessment & Peacebuilding Planning"
Program Rationale
Popular Political
Theories of Change
Popular Economic
Theories of Change
Popular Rule-of-Law
Theories of Change
WHERE: If x parts of the context are at the root of conflict and division or provide a foundation of resilience and connection between people,
what will influence these factors

WHO: If x individual or group is driving or mitigating conflict, then
who is the center of gravity for change

WHY: If x group is motivated to drive or mitigate conflict,
what will change or support their motivations?

HOW & WHAT: If x power sources are driving and mitigating conflict,
what actions will influence these factors

WHEN: If x times are conducive to violence or peace,
what will influence these times?
Democracy brings peace

Negotiation brings peace

Effective leaders brings peace

A balance of power brings peace
Economic development brings peace

Blocking weapons sales brings peace

Humanitarian assistance brings peace
Rule of law brings peace

Restorative justice brings peace

Legal frameworks bring peace
A conflict assessment leads to theories (or hypotheses) of conflict drivers and mitigators as well as a theory of what type of intervention or approach will bring positive change.
Theories of Change
Conflict assessment + peacebuilding effort = effect
"Hope lines"
If we do this peacebuilding effort, then we hope the conflict will change.
Popular Security
Theories of Change
Peacekeeping brings peace

Security sector reform brings peace

Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration brings peace
Popular Social and Psychological
Theories of Change
Trauma healing brings peace

Peace education brings peace

Social movements bring peace
Developing Theories of Change
Local proverbs, metaphors
Interview staff about their theories of change
Ask staff to keep a journal or write regular reports on their shifting theories of change
Hold a conference or workshop on theories of change
Invite university researchers to help validate or disprove theories of change
War on Terror
Kill and isolate
to reduce the power of these groups
Less terrorist attacks
Peacebuilding Approach to Terrorism
Groups not
benefiting from
global system perceive the system to be unjust
with isolated
groups to influence them
with moderate views and ideas
Less terrorism
Full transcript