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Do Uranus & Neptune Control Solar Modulation & Grand Minima?
Transcript of Do Uranus & Neptune Control Solar Modulation & Grand Minima?
Powerwave and the Disordered Orbit
AM is a background engine not linked
to cycle length.
Timing of the AMP event is crucial.
A strong AMP event occurring near cycle max is wasted.
Disordered Orbit 2005
Why the Isotope Record Displays a 210 year Frequency.
Each 172 years a "suite" of disordered orbits is offered that vary each time. Most of the Holocene experiences weak Grand Minima with many disordered orbits not strong enough to slow down more than 1 cycle.
Solar Distance to SSB (via Jupiter) Showing Slightly More Detail than Carl's AM Graph.
Planetary Theory Pioneers
Earth's Future Climate
Holocene Carbon 14 Record (Solar Proxy Record)
Usoskin sets the Grand Minima line too low, missing the Dalton Minimum
The Disordered Orbit
"Sim1" orbit animation courtesy Carsten Arnholm. Hover mouse over image.
2 Solar orbit patterns (inner & outer loop) caused by Jupiter & Saturn. Outer loop is Jupiter together with Saturn. Inner loop is Jupiter opposed.
At 2005 the inner loop is trying to become an outer loop because of the combined gravity of Uranus & Neptune causing the disordered orbit.
Only one planetary configuration is capable of causing an inner loop distortion. Note the next inner loop at 2030 is normal.
Charvàtovà staying at the higher level and not recognizing the cause of the disordered orbit. Her misunderstanding leads her to predict in 2007 a SSN of 140 for SC24.
Landscheidt using an incorrect marker to predict Grand Minima (torque extrema at zero crossing). This led to grand minima predictions for 1990 & 2030. He had the correct data but failed to recognize the importance.
Solar Angular Momentum (AM)
Angular Momentum Perturbation (AMP) event at 2005 occurring at the same time as Disordered Orbit. Strongly Disordered Orbits give opportunity for severe solar slowdown.
Back in 1965 Paul Jose first proposed a planetary influence over solar output. His paper was vague but he proposed the outer 4 planets return to the same position every 178.8 years. Later this was found to be incorrect but none the less he provided the foundation for Landscheidt and Charvàtovà to progress with their pioneering work.
Both Landscheidt and Charvàtovà had problems with their work that allowed for plenty of criticism from the scientific community, but they were definitely on the right track. In 2007 the late Carl Smith while studying Landscheidt's work produced his famous Angular Momentum Graph that I believe gave us the Rosetta Stone for understanding what drives our Sun. He was unaware of the ultimate secret before his passing which I was lucky enough to stumble on.
Now the scientific community is taking notice of Planetary Theory some 50 years later. Solar Cycle 24 with its predicted weak output is the catalyst that will set the solar science world alight.
One of the main points of interest associated with Planetary Theory is the orbit of the Sun around the centre of the Solar System (SSB)
Prime Planetary Position to Initiate Largest Disordered Orbit
The above planet position is the ONLY combination that can produce a Disordered inner loop orbit. The Saturn position 30 deg to the perpendicular being the strongest.
Hover mouse over image to view animation
AMP events coinciding with all solar slow downs.
The next thousand years show no sign of Maunder Minimum type conditions
SC24 is over 3 years into the cycle.
Currently this cycle is tracking the same as the first cycle of the Dalton Minimum (if we count Sunspots using the same method as Wolf). SC25 is expected to be the same with a recovery at SC26. There is NO evidence to suggest a Maunder type minimum is on the cards.
What's Happening on the Sun Today?
Angular Momentum (bottom half inverted)
Disordered inner loop orbit that travels away from the SSB at the greatest angle providing the strongest AMP event. This coincides with greater (higher) disturbance on AM & solar distance charts. 1830 AMP event occurring near cycle max. History shows the best time for an AMP event is late in the previous cycle.
AM has 2 functions.
1. Greater AM = higher cycle.
2. Perturbed AM = lower cycle.
Both of these functions occur near the TOP of the wave where Perturbed AM can overrule high AM.
Charvàtovà's "trefoil" pattern can only occur at the bottom of the wave showing her mistake of stating solar maximums occurring during this phase.
Hale cycle disrupted in first cycle of a Grand Minimum cycle carries over to following cycle. Possible solar quadrupole outcome.
Do Uranus & Neptune Control Solar Grand Minima & Solar Cycle Modulation?
International Journal of Astronomy & Astrophysics.
2013 Volume 3. Numer 3.
Sharp Paper. Pre Print
Abreu et al Paper.
Beyond Landscheidt website.
Layman's Sunspot Count.
In 2012 esteemed authors Abreu, Beer, Ferriz-Mas, McCracken & Steinhilber publish a paper titled "Is there a planetary influence on solar activity? One of their findings is a 208 year highest frequency of Grand Minima events across the Holocene.