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CGW4U - Demographic Transition Model

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by

M Rudkins

on 24 September 2014

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Transcript of CGW4U - Demographic Transition Model

the Demographic
Transition
Model

a model which predicts a country's level of development based on Birth and Death rates
It predicts that all countries would over time go through 4 demographic stages
1
2
3
4
STAGE
STAGE
STAGE
STAGE
BR - High and fluctuating
DR - High and fluctuating
lowest level of development
PGR - slow
no family planning
little access to health care
little access to clean water
disease and famine are common
few countries still at this stage
BR - High
DR - falling rapidly
Access to health care
little family planning
improved technology = higher crop yields
improved sanitation
BR - falling rapidly
DR - continues to decline
PGR is rapid - population
"explosion" begins
urbanization
education; especially for women
family planning
families become smaller
large families
PGR still high, but begins to stabilize at
the end of stage 3
BR low
DR low
Developed countries
Developing countries
Less developed countries
PGR - low
widespread use of
family planning
family size is small
somalia
bolivia
mexico
australia
Now let's look at the pyramids...
large families
high IMR
continued access to
advanced health care
'healthy' lifestyle
most advanced medical care
note the very
high BR
few survive
in older years
= high DR
more people
living longer
= lower DR
rapidly
declining BR
population
'explosion'
continues
very low BR
very low DR
rapidly aging
population
stage 1
stage 2
stage 3
stage 4
some demographers
think that there is
a stage 5
5
stage
Very low BR
low DR edges slightly up
large senior cohort
family size continues
to go down
PGR = zero/negative
some developed countries
at this stage
germany
population 'explosion' begins
germany's demographic transition:
sweden's demographic transition:
DR higher than BR
DR higher than BR
equality of women:
education & workforce
Full transcript