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An Alternative Future to 2050

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Jia Shen Ang

on 5 May 2010

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Transcript of An Alternative Future to 2050

2010 The Preferable Future This is Our Probable Future The Last 5 Years This is Our World Today: 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 The price of oil continues to rise from previous years Oil disruptions continue in Iraq and Nigeria and a strong energy demand drives the price of oil up in the first and second quarter. (Feb) The Kyoto Protocol goes into affect Events of Events of Events of Events of Events of This is Because: & 2005 saw the most active hurricane season recorded. Hurricanes including Katrina damaged many oil extraction and refining facilities. This caused increased oil prices. Other Events The Burgan oil field in Kuwait goes reaches its peak (1.7million barrels per day), production starts to decline. A total of 140 countries agree to ratify the pact. They agree to cut four green house gasses (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and sulphur) and two groups of gasses (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) at the 1990 level The United States does not take part & Already the world’s second importer of oil after the United States, China economy continues to grow. The demand for oil grows at least 9%. This again drives the price of oil up. Natural disasters also help effect the price of oil: (Jan-Feb) Attack in Nigeria cause Shell to shut down 455,000 barrels per day of oil production. This caused the price of oil up again.
The price of oil rose and fell This is Because: The IEA predicts by 2030 the output will be 1.53million barrels per day (Dec) OPEC agree to a further cut of five hundred thousand barrels per day The start of the financial crisis Effect of OPEC’s oil cut are seen, an increase of oil prices (Feb) BP shuts down production in the Northstar oil field, Alaska, to repair a leak in the pipe line (Mar) Shell further stops production in Nigeria after finding a spill at a pipe line, the production restarts again on March 26 (Apr) Oil prices rise again after due to the elections in Nigeria (July) Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant is shut down in Japan following a 6.8 magnitude earthquake, causing the consumption of oil in Japan to jump by 1500 barrels per day. Record Breaking Oil Prices China’s and India’s demand for oil, coupled with other factors such as attacks on Nigeria’s pipelines drove the price of oil up. As oil reaches its record breaking 147$ per barrel, President Bush lift a ban on offshore drilling Due to the economic recession the price of oil started to drop from a high of 147$ per barral to 30.28$ per barral in December. The Economic Recession: New York Mercantile Exchange: price of oil The Economic Recession Continues President Obama assumes office in January The sale of new cars drop worldwide, this effects car makers. Copenhagen Fails to deliver a climate deal A global population of 6,818,300,000.
Current Events: The result is an oil spill which could be as bad as the 1989 Exxon tanker spill in Alaska (Apr) An oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico sinks after an explosion Offshore drilling off the U.S. is banned by the Obama administration until the investigation into the accident is complete Go Back Five Years 2005 It is dominated by oil Here Are Some Common Uses/Products of Oil: This is What Will Happen Over The Next 50 Years? How reliant are we on oil? China used about 7.2million barrels a day. 34% of this oil is used by cars Alternative Future to 2050:
Focus on OIL & Energy Demand of oil drops because of this and the global recession, but prices rise again because of the OPEC’s cuts in oil production. In other news, China became the world leader in renewable energy investments (Sep) Prices of oil started to drop due as OPEC could not agree on an output cut. (Oct) OPEC agree to an output cut of 1.2million barrels per day Oil prices start to rise again as OPEC slashes production of oil 2050
2011-2014 2015-2019 2020-2024 2025-2029 2030-2034 2035-2039 2040-2044 2045-2049 2050
2011-2014 2015-2019 2020-2024 2025-2029 2030-2034 2035-2039 2040-2044 2045-2049
The effort to clean up the oil spill is ongoing; however there is already a large impact on the environment. There is also damage to the fishing industry in the area. The economies of China and India continue to grow consuming a lot of oil Oil prices continue to rise, to the 2008 level or past 2012 The cleanup of the 2010 U.S. oil spill is completed There is still significant impact on the environment Using methods such as burning and skimming the oil The investigation into the spill is still ongoing In 2013 the U.S. lifts the ban on offshore drilling from 2010 as oil prices reach the 2008 level OPEC continues to actively adjust production dropping oil to 70-80$ per barrel The rise in price will heavily damage the car and aviation industry Cars that are sold will be ones which do the best at fuel efficiency Manufacturers start heavy research into mass production of zero emission cars and highly efficient aircrafts Recovery of countries such as the U.S. and the U.K from the economic recession, and the fact that oil prices continue to rise means that their investment into renewable energies rise. 2015 – Global Population: Around 7Billion People 2 billion people around the world would be living in poverty We will have a food crisis 2015-2018 – Countries would have been able to negotiate some form of climate deal The millennium development goal to end hunger and poverty by 2015 has to be relooked It may be too late by this time CO2 emissions still continue to grow as new emerging economies continue to use fossil fuels to fuel their growth 2016 – Most of the world would have recovered from the economic recession Investments on renewable energies continue to grow 2021 – Peak oil around the world is seen and people begin to panic The price of oil spikes OPEC and other oil producing nations adjust oil production to stabilize prices Alternative energy sources become a top priority A relook at nuclear energy would occur Nations around the world start to invest more into unconventional methods of getting oil (such as oil sands and oil shale) The price of oil stabilizes at 120$ per barrel The fight against poverty and hunger gets harder as our population starts to reach the earth’s carrying capacity. Worse is the increasing effect of global warming Parts of the world experience drought, and others flooding Extreme weather such as the hurricane season of 2005 start to occur more often 2025 – Global Population: Around 8Billion People The effects of global warming are becoming very clear The poor are hit the hardest as the food crisis gets worse Coastal cities with the money start to prepare for rising sea levels Cities that cannot prepare see many people migrating to places they believe are safer Car companies start to produce highly efficient cars running on renewable energy sources Older cars still contribute to the rise of CO2 Solar, fuel cells, battery powered? 2028 – Trials for aircraft to run on bio fuels begin Other alternatives are also considered Bio fuels still contribute to the rise of CO2 The Price of oil rises again, several nuclear power stations power up around the world to try and meet energy demand The aviation industry finally starts to mass produce aircraft that are able to run on bio fuels Research is started to try to solve the food crisis Many car owners start the change from their older cars to newer more carbon zero ones or find an alternative way around The price of oil continue to become increasingly expensive Products connected with oil are also become increasingly expensive Development is made in terms of solving the food crisis, but it still remains unsolved, poverty also continues to be a big problem Some countries are now able to supply 40-50% of their power by renewable sources Renewable energy development will still be a priority for nations with the money Nations without the money would still power themselves using other fossil fuels By 2038 some of these nations would be able to start on small investments into more renewable sources Global warming gets worst Rising seas start to threaten coastal cities around the world
Parts of the world start to be submerged
Cities that are more inland start to see a spike in people
The poor are hit the hardest Flying becomes very expensive 2042 – Prices of oil start to drop and stabilize at 140$ per barrel due to the investment into unconventional oil The price of flying comes down as airlines around the world start getting less oil dependent aircraft A conflict begins with bio fuel supplies vs. food supplies
Food prices are driven up More of the world would be start to be able to power themselves using renewable sources Poorer countries will still be lagging behind
Some of the richer countries would start to reach 70-80%
Oil starts to be a secondary source of energy for countries around the world dropping the price More development is made in trying to solve the food crisis Some countries still use fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas as power supplies
Vehicles are mainly powered by electricity produced by a renewable source or a fossil fuel that is not oil Global Population: Around 9Billion People The world population just passes 9billion
There are signs that it will fall again The amount of CO2 that is put in the air starts to become stable This is too late, global warming is a huge problem
This Is What Should Happen Over The Next 50 Years? Goals Should Be Set: Goals for 2011-2020: Goals for 2020-2030: Goals for 2031-2040: Goals for 2041-2050: This should be done now In 2011 the world leaders have to agree on a climate deal to freeze greenhouse gas emissions at the current level until 2050 Planting trees
Stainable living
Green building/cities
Public transports Prepare the world food supply for an extra 1.2billion people by 2025
MEDCs should help LEDCs develop alternative energy sources by 2030 as they will be the ones that will suffer the most
By 2030 MEDCs should aim for around a 50% of their energy to come from renewable sources
•Help from MEDCs should allow LECD countries to gain some significant amount of development by 2035 At this point the world has to be prepared for a global population of around 9billion
LEDCs should aim for most of their energy to come from renewable sources by 2050
2011 – A climate deal is reached, world leaders agree to freeze greenhouse gas emissions at the current level by 2050




2011 – Governments around the world start up green projects



2012 The cleanup of the 2010 U.S. oil spill is completed



Economies of China and India continue to grow but at a slower pace, due to the climate deal they do as much as they can to halt the amount of greenhouse gasses emitted, cars still use up a lot of oil and the cheapest form of energy is still coal.



Economic support should be given to LEDC countries to help them out of the global recession and solve the problem of poverty
China continues to lead the world in renewable energy investments


Cars makers start to produce vehicles that use streamline design, light materials and an efficient engine to be much more environmentally friendly
























Work should be ongoing in trying to solve the world population/food crisis
An example of a fuel efficient truck designed by Luigi Colani The MEDCs start to see more green/sustainable buildings due to government efforts and business seeing that building green will save more money in the long term Oil still sees a rise in prices as older cars and countries around the world still need them More and more fuel friendly cars start to appear on the road, some are carbon zero using fuel cells. The problem remains that production of these vehicles still uses energy from fossil fuels. Oil prices remain constant as countries recognize that it is a resource that cannot be wasted Supply of food is keeping up with the rising global population Efforts by countries like the U.S. and China into renewable energies help bring the price of solar and wind energies allowing LEDCs to buy them at a much cheaper price By 2020 cars should be built using ultra light materials and fuel efficient engines Aircraft companies should start heavy research into fuel alternatives by 2020, this should be brought in by 2030

Renewable energies should be the main priority up to 2050 Several small wars around the world start because of oil security Global Population: Around 7Billion People (2012) The cleanup of the 2010 U.S. oil spill is completed Oil prices continue to rise Global Population: Around 8Billion People Around 9Billion People Nuclear energy is also looked at around the world, something like a traveling wave reactor (TerraPower from a 2010 TED talk given by Bill Gates) could work as it uses spent nuclear material from power plants which could solve the problem of nuclear waste as well as creating energy. Development in renewable energies continue to bring the price of the renewable down CO2 emissions start to slow down Aircraft running on bio fuels would start to be produced and cars running on fuel cells or batteries start to become common Peak oil is seen around the world, causing a brief jump in oil prices The damage is limited as most countries has made significant change in moving to renewable energies The aircraft industry is the most effected, as they still use a bio fuel blend to power their aircraft Smaller aircraft may be able to use a combination of solar and batteries or fuel cells 2045 - Several traveling wave reactors come online and start to produce energy; they are able to get rid of a significant amount of nuclear waste that has been kept because it had no use. As the world edges past 9billion there may be some problems in supplying the demand for food Development of food resources needs to continue Because of MEDCs helping LEDCs, most of their energy should come from renewable sources by now 2043 - Some MEDC countries should start to be more like today (2010) emerging economies Although there is some impact on global warming effort s to stop it have brought it to a level which is more acceptable By 2015 governments around the world should start project which support the ‘green’ movement. Investment should also be made into fuel cells, batteries, or some other energy source, this technology should become common in 2030 What actions should be taken by: Governments: Businesses: Individuals: Governments have the money and power to bring on change They can fund ‘green’ projects They can give incentives for green project Should realize that going green and being sustainable will look better for their images and should also save them money in the long term Have the power to influence governments and industry
People can demand for more sustainable products
As people buy more sustainable things the price of those items drop
Part of the world where solar will be most effective are shown in red Concentrated solar power Solar Energy OR Photovoltaics Large Scale Small Scale
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