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Demographic City Profile Madrid
Transcript of Demographic City Profile Madrid
CRISIS unemployment Foreigners Youth no more immigration? tendencies for educated
youth leaving? life birth & fertility rate ageing
and decline? Demographic
CRISIS? 2007/08 2011/12 employment immigration Madrid a booming city Growth rates of GDP volume <ISN>
(percentage year-on-year change) MADRID Elena Hernández-Cuñat
July 2012 Urban Demography
University Vienna - 4CITIES The population of Madrid - which Madrid actually? Region (Comunidad) City (Ciudad) Metropolitan Area? 6.489.680 3.393.156 5.731.518 foreigners: 1.079.944
or 16,5% foreigners: 557.181
or 16,9% foreigners: 961.969
or 16,8% The Metropolitan Area has approx 90% of the population of the Region of Madrid (depending on the measurement) Population Madrid 2011
or 16,9% Population Madrid 2009
or 17,42% new migration patterns? Unemployment hits foreigners first and particularly hard! Main Soures: INE (Instituto Nacional de Estadistica), PM (Padrón Municipal de Habitantes), AY (Dirección General de Estadística del Ayuntamiento de Madrid), Eurostat, ESPON >>>Eurostat database on Metropolitan areas uses the Region of Madrid as entity The GDP per capita in the City of Madrid exceeds the Spanish and European average. Evolution of employment rate between 2007 and 2010 <Eurostat>
(Comparison: Impact of the crisis on:
London: moderate decrease -1,7%
Berlin: moderate increase +2,3%) labour-intensive growth fueled by immigration and de facto permissive immigration policy! Growth of the Spanish economy almost exclusively through expanding employment
>>6.5 million additional jobs between 1998 and 2007 history of migration in Spain:
from emigration to spanish immigration Population growth City moderate:
1998: 2.899.0912008: 3.238.208 suburbanisation Due to the limits of the urban space the city's population decreased (by -8,7% in 1970 and 2001)
BUT: the region's population increased 260% (1970-2001)
2001-2009 “immigration boom” >>> the city started to grow again
(by 13,5%) inner city distribution (1/2) population foreign population >>>growth of the city JUST due to immigration 'just media hype' or some true core?
Spanish media but also
NY Times Spatial patterns of unemployment 2011 <AY> net migration rate (incl. statistical adjustment) <Eurostat> rate of total population change
<Eurostat> steady growth of employment rate of the Region between 2001-2007 (from 62,2% to 70,8 %) <Eurostat>
Comparison to other large European cities <Eurostat>
>> in 2007 at the level of London Metropolitan Region (higher than Paris, Berlin, Brussels) Unemployment rate Spain and Madrid
(total and Youth unemployment 15-24) <INE> evolution of the number of foreign born inhabitants <PM> Growth rates of GDP volume
(percentage year-on-year change)
<Eurostat> number of spanish citizens living abroad versus
the number of foreigners living in Spain (INE) growth of the city due to immigration from abroad (in %) life birth (total number)
<Eurostat> New Migration Patterns of the City 2011
net international migration balance -27.322
(share of foreigners = 92% or -25.184)
emigration (to abroad): 72.461
immigration (from abroad): 45.136 evolution of the population of the Region of Madrid <INE> population growth of the
city and the region <INE> Net Migration by Components 2000-2007 Typology of the Demographic Status 2005 >>
change in the pattern? Impact of Migration on Very Old Age Dependency Ratio in 2050 (Difference in %) Impact of Migration on Population in 2050 (Calculation as the difference in population between the Status Quo and No Migration scenarios in % of the population in the NO Migration scenario) Change in Working Age Population 2000-2007 Total Fertility Rate <PM> continuous growth of the TFR in the Region of Madrid between 2000 and 2008
(from 1,25 to 1,53)
>>> but 1,47 in 2009 and 1,43 in 2010! Evolution of GDP per capita: Madrid, Madrid Region, Spain, EU (Euro Zone) <INE, AY> City Profile Population structure of Madrid
1981 versus 2009 <PM> By geopolitical regions, Latin America 56%, Europe 27,3%. Africa 8,4% and Asia 7,4%. Main nationalities of foreign population Madrid 2009 <INE> Inner city distribution of GDP per capita 2006 <AY> Enlargement of the city 1860 Spatial pattern of foreign population 2011 <AY> Madrid in EU comparison (NUTS2 level) >>>suddenly the Spanish GDP growth
rate is under EU average 21,34% 7,01% 13,30% Unemployment rate Madrid <INE> 2008: 7,39% 2010: 16,17% 2012: 18,65% unemployment rate Madrid <INE> 2007 foreigners: 9,52% 2011 foreigners: 24,64% 2007 spanish: 5,48% 2011 spanish: 14,59% foreign born population reached 17,5% in 2009
(A great growth compared with 2,8% in 1999!) inner city distribution (2/2) ++ active immigration policies: 114.996 new citizenships just in the city of Madrid between 2005 and 2010! “This generation of young people who are leaving are our best qualified ever,” said César Castel. “It is a huge loss of investment for Spain. On average it cost us 60,000 euros to train each engineer, and they are leaving.” The Economist.com (30th of April 2012) 27.322 would be approx. this amount of people!
(21st of May 2011 - Puerta del Sol, Madrid) http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/gallery/2011/may/21/spanish-defy-protest-ban-in-pictures Madrid scenario: 'young potentials' = young age structure, positive natural growth and strong net migration
negative net migration and less life birth due to the crisis! In the maps above one can see the socio-spatial segregation in the city of Madrid, where a north-south division is clearly visible (GDP per capita distribution). This current segregation can be observed already in the enlargement of the city in 1860. In the south, they planned the industrial zones next to the central station Atocha. In the east we find Parque del Retiro, the most characteristic park of the city, next to it the aristocracy and middle classes. One of the reason for the current segregation is the direction of the winds which would bring clean air to richer parts. However, one can also find find poor areas in the inner district, particularly, in the district Centro. District who was traditionally working class, and today represents one of the highest concentration of migrants of the city. This is mainly due to cheaper substandard housing and the concentration of service jobs in those areas. The maps above show segregation on a neighbourhood scale. The foreign population (on the left) shows some similar tendencies than the GDP distribution although a clear differentiation between the district level and the more local scale is visible. On the right one can see the distribution of unemployment in the city. There are high differences between neighbourhoods with very low unemployment (7,01 as an example) ad some with a total unemployment rate of more than 21% In EU comparison one can see, that the Region of Madrid is a growing region due to a negative internal and positive external migration - mainly stating that the growth is due to immigration from abroad.
Similar can be seen on the map at the right, where the change in working age population is being put inrelation among EU regions. More than half show a decline or stagnation but Madrid is part of the group with the strongest increase. Also this is related to the migration to the Region and the City. The map on the left shows the estimated impact of migration on the population of EU Regions till 2050. For the Region of Madrid it shows a scenario where migration has a string impact on the growth of population. In the DEMIFER report on the Demographic Status of Europe by the EU network ESPON, migration is seen as a strong factor in regional disparities reducing aging in more affluent regions. The map on the right shows the impact of migration on the very old age dependency ratio, making clear that aging was not seen as major problem in Madrid (in comparison to other EU regions) since the strong migration would limited the demographic transition till 2050. Do the tendencies of changing migration patterns as well as lower birth rates show signs for another kind of crisis coming up for Madrid, meaning that besides the economic crisis there will be a ... Birth Rate the city 2010: 10,19
Mortality Rate the city 2010: 7.77
Youth index of the city 2010: 75,07 The representation of the foreigner population living in Madrid reached more tan 17,5% in 2009. A great growth if we compare with the 2,8% of 1999. (A special case if we compare with other European cities where the foreigner migration has been a slower and paused process). Ecuadorian and Rumanian are the two main nationalities.Origin by geopolitical regions, Latin America 56%, Europe 27,3%. Africa 8,4% and Asia 7,4%. The intensive growth of foreigner population has compensated the lost of national population in the city. Between 1999 and 2009 the foreigner population growth in 379.773 inhabitants while the national population decreased in -63.861 inhabitants. In the period between 2001 and 2003 we find the major contribution of foreigner population to the city, 80.000 people Despite those growth rates the city centre (‘central Almond’) shows a total population loss between 1940 and 2009 as opposition to the very strong growth of the rest of the city of Madrid.