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Economic Impact of Climate Change on North America and Europ

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Andrea Ferree

on 21 April 2015

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Transcript of Economic Impact of Climate Change on North America and Europ

-Great Lakes 8 bordering states (US)-recreational activities=35+ billion annual economic activity. Fishing, hunting, and wildlife viewing= $18+ billion.
-Potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change:
-Reduced water levels (decreased winter ice cover allowing more evaporation).
-increased frequency of intense storm events (altering the timing of inflows)
-warmer water temperatures.
-Lake Superior-Within 30 years it may be mostly ice-free in a typical winter.
-Lake Erie- water level could drop 4-5 feet by the end of this century.
-Change in internal water cycling=longer summer stratification potentially leading to larger hypoxic zones and less habitat for cold water fish. More suitable for invasive warm water species and algal blooms. More mobilization of sediments, toxic chemicals, and nutrients from urban agricultural runoff.
University of *ichigan
= 2013 "National Climate Assessment" ="Great Lakes region will see mixed but net-negative impacts."
-Loss in ice cover on Great Lakes will increase commercial shipping season but invasive species and algal blooms projected to offset gains.
*The negative scenario described in the study used modeling with a 3.8 to 4.9 degree F range for 2000-2050 warming versus the 1 degree F change of historical warming for 1950 to 2000.

Fisheries and Coastal Regions-
Great Lakes

-Coastal areas and their economies are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change
-More susceptible to changes in water temperature
-Waves and tides associated with erosion
-Changes in storm and flood patterns: frequency and intensity

-Types of fish cultivated (finfish and shellfish) are particularly sensitive:
-Water temperature, salinity, O solubility, dissolved waste products
-When pushed to their extent of environmental tolerance, disease becomes prevelant, more vulnerable to predators and parasites.

-Scotland leads in finfish aquaculture (90%), while Ireland leads in shellfish (50%)
-In Scotland: Atlantic Salmon accounts for 98% of catch (worth € 412 million annually - $616 million USD)
-In Ireland: Mussels account for 80 % of shellfish catch (worth € 34.6 million annually--about $37.4 million USD), plus an additional $79 million from finfish

Impact analyses are preliminary. Aquaculture is still an evolving sector in the UK & Ireland. Effects have only been estimated, and have not been formally measured.
Fisheries and Coastal Regions-
Aquaculture in Ireland and the UK
-The hotter and drier climate experienced as a result of climate change causes nationals yields to decrease. -A decrease in yields causes the price of corn and soybeans to rise.
-Being used in a considerable amount of products the prices of many other products will also rise hurting the pockets of the consumer.
-Weeds, pests and fungi thrive in hotter climates with increased CO2 levels. In order to protect crops, farmers, on average will spend an additional $3 billion dollars, cutting from their profits.
-Droughts and extreme precipitation are projected to add additional losses of $3.6 billion across the boards.
Negative Impacts on Agriculture
- A 2014 study on the economic impacts of the California drought by UC Davis shows that there is 6.6 million acre-foot reduction in the availability of agriculture water.
-The California drought of 2014 is responsible for the greatest reduction in California water availability.
-This specifically affects crop revenue, dairy, and other livestock revenue.
-The majority of the needed water is replenished by an increase in groundwater pumping.
-The water supply was still short by 1.8 million acre-feet, resulting in a total direct loss of $1.5 billion.
-Drought resulted in 17,100 job losses.
-Statistically, 2015 is likely to be another dry year. This will result in lower groundwater level and escalated pumping costs.
Positive Impacts on Agriculture
-EPA: warmer climate conditions = faster growth for crops (for a time)
-= increase in crop's yield (...for a time)
-Some as high as 30% (wheat and soybean)
-That;s with a doubling of CO2
-Other crops (like corn) exhibit only a 10% increase
-It's still an increase
-As these yields increase, so will sales in these areas (........for a time)

-Unfortunately, these wouldn't last for long...
-Temperatures are projected to become
too high
-Extreme weather conditions harm this as well
- =
in crop yields (more on this later)
- =
in crop sales = harmful for the economy (long term)

-There are positive impacts, to be sure, but the long term is negative
-Chart on the next frame

Economic Impacts of Climate Change on North America and Europe
Drought Causes
Drought was likely caused by a series of consecutive outlier dry years in the normal cycle
- No significance of difference in cool season precipitation.
-Dry Season occurs during warm season- soil moisture loss occurs quickly
-Soil moisture deficits early in the dry season are exacerbated by the warm conditions of the dry season

-Sierra Nevada snow reserves release necessary run-off during the relatively dry spring and summer months
-Trends toward earlier runoff have been detected, and continued warming is likely to lead to increased rain-to-snow ration, which does not allow Sierra Nevada reserves to be replaced.
-Paleoclimate record indicates the multi-decade droughts have occurred in the California region, though at less extreme levels than today
-Though in the past droughts appear to be a function of ocean variability, the increased probability of an extremely warm year increases risk of prolonged drought in the region today.
-Anthropogenic warming very likely has been a cause of the increased probability of co-occurring temperature and precipitation levels that have led to drought in California in the past.
Tech & Development:
Alternate Fuel
The United States was built around a unique highway system which led to high car mileage, and ultimately our "addiction to oil"
Potential Solutions:
-embrace true city life; eliminate commutes
-Ditch the car all together for public transportation
-Switch out the gasoline with
Development: Oil Usage
-Fossil sources accounted for 82% of the global energy supply in 2011.
-Oil makes up the biggest portion of fossil fuels used for energy.
-Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane are emitted into the atmosphere each time you drive a car on gasoline.
-Each gallon of gas burned created roughly 20 lbs of CO2 emitted into our atmosphere.
Tech & Development:
Green Cars
-Response to climate change has opened up the doors of a new industry- "Green Cars". Companies such as
Tesla Motors
are on the edge of breakthrough, despite many efforts from oil companies to stop their rapid progress.
-The construction of just one
(Tesla's electric car battery production site in Nevada) is credited for creating around 22,000 jobs and is also "expected to generate $100 billion in economic activity over the next 20 years".
-On a micro-econ level, driving a
Tesla Model S
will save a consumer ~$2,802 in fuel costs for every 20,000 miles driven (in comparison with Premium Sedan).
Economics of Green Energy
-An increased use of solar energy will decrease the need to import oil and allow US money to stay within the country. Furthermore, the solar industry is continuing to grow, which will result in an increase of jobs. In 2010, over 100,000 jobs were created. As it was mentioned before, those who choose to capitalize on solar energy are able to receive tax credits. In the long run, companies can avoid major disasters such as oil spills that cost millions to clean up.

-Wind energy is producing necessary mechanical power without contributing to CO2 levels. It is also growing in production which has spurred an increase of jobs needed for creating wind farms and managing them, as well. There has been a rise in jobs for those living in rural areas. Moreover, the manufacturing sector has benefited due to the need of turbines and it's component. Thus, ultimately, benefiting the entire economy.
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