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GLOBAL POPULATION CHANGE

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Nathaniel Krbavac

on 15 October 2014

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Transcript of GLOBAL POPULATION CHANGE

GLOBAL POPULATION CHANGES
QUESTIONS TO GUIDE MY INQUIRY
What are the pros and cons of population change?
How will populations change throughout the next 35 to 50 years?
Why will these populations change?
Which resources/resource quantities change with these population changes?
HOW WILL POPULATIONS CHANGE IN THE NEXT 35 TO 50 YEARS?
POPULATION INCREASES:
Canada: Canada currently has a total of 36 million residents living within the 9,984,670 km2 of gorgeous land. By 2036, the population should be at 47.7 million, this is the year that the annual increase begins shrink due to high death totals. And by 2050, the total should be nearing 58 million. A total population gain of about 22 million people in just 36 years.

USA: USA currently has a population of about 335 million people living proudly within their 153,646 km of beautiful coastline. By the year 2050 the land of the free and the home of the brave should have approximately 401 million citizens. A total increase of 28% or an annual increase of 0.6%.

India: The second largest country is going to get a whole lot bigger. Today it has around 1.28 billion people which is just 211 million people less than the largest population of China. By 2050 India should have upwards of 1.65 billion people making it the world's largest country population wise. It should meet this feat by the year 2028.
POPULATION DECREASES:
Japan: The country with the world's tenth largest population is about to get ALOT smaller. Right now it has a total population of a whopping 126 million people. This is astonishing because the country only has a surface area of 377,944 km. By the year 2050 Japan's population will decrease dramatically to only 96 million citizens, an annual decline of 0.2% a year.

Germany: Germany already does not have a huge population only at around 81 million people and it is going to get smaller and smaller each year starting around 2020 when it will be 78 million. And 30 years later, a country that has only 0.13% of fresh water on its surface, will not only have a decline in that but a major decrease in people landing at a total of only 32 million. Four million less than Canada's current population.

Spain: Soccer central as called by many is nearing the 40 million people mark, and that rather small population is going to get a bit smaller. By 2050, it should have lost 9 million residents dropping it to only 31.3 million people. This will drop it from the 28th largest population all the way down to the 54th.
STATIC POPULATIONS:
Kazakhstan: The ninth largest country by area has huge amounts of open land and will remain to have all this land throughout the next four decades. It should only have a minor increase of 600 people, remaining between the 16 and 17 million marks.

France: One of the most athletic countries in the world is said to have the smallest increase in populations for the next half century. Now with 64 million citizens and by 2050, it should have only increased by between 50 and 100 people.
WHY WILL THESE POPULATIONS CHANGE?
INCREASES CHANGING FOR WHAT REASON:
Canada: Since 2005 there has been approximately 15,000 more births than deaths each year. Around the year 2030 that will switch around and there will be around 5,000 more deaths than births each year. This is because 14.8% of the population is 65 years or older. Although that may seem like a population decrease, there is major factor that makes it an increase. The immigration totals! The total from the last 4 years and future 5 years boost our population way up.
Past: 2010-249,000; 2011-251,000; 2012-250,000; 2013-250,000
Future: In the next 5 years there will be an estimated 3.6 million immigrants. Add that to the approximate 70,000 more births than deaths in that time and you get an estimate 3,670,000 more people in the country over the next 5 years.

USA: The population is rising at an average of 3,100 immigrants a day. The population is still increasing but at the slowest rate since the Great Depression in 1929 where 8 million people lost their jobs and 6 million people left the country. In the past 5 years the population was supposed to grow 0.73% increasing the population to 319,536,000 on New Years Day 2010. But instead the low immigration rate caused a rather low 0.69% increase only bringing the population up to 317,298,000. Throughout the next 5 years the growth rate will rise slightly to 0.72%, and stay around that rate for the next couple decades and will cause the gross rise in the United States population for that time.

India: This human megatron's population will begin to shoot up within the next couple years due to the extremely high fertility rate. Each female in Canada will give birth to 2 children in their lifetime, and in India each female would give birth to 3 children. Sounds extremely close and like it doesn't mean anything. But in Canada there is just over 17 million women. While in India there is just upwards of 614 million women. That's 36 times Canada's total. Also India has the ninety-first youngest population in the world. India's average age is 27 years. Oppose to China's average age of 37 years old. The highest number of births come between the ages 24 and 33, hence India's growth rate. Finally, India has the highest number of births per minute/hour. Every minute there are 51 births, and every hour there are 3063 births.
DECREASING POPULATIONS FOR WHAT REASON:
Japan: First off, Japan's fertility rate is among the Earth's lowest. Asia's 18th largest country, only averages 1.13 child per couple, the world's 22nd lowest. This is astonishing since just 20 years ago it was averaging 4 per couple and was 43rd highest. Also, Japan has the second oldest average female age with it hitting 48 years old and seventh oldest average male age with that at 45 years old. Altogether they have the second oldest population with that reaching 46 years old. That is the main reason why the birth rate is so low. An old age does not mix with having babies. The final reason why the population is declining is because the Japanese are not getting married. Japan has the world's lowest marriage rate and that does not seem to be rising anytime soon. A recent survey shows that 70% of unmarried men and 80% of unmarried women in their 20's say they do not want to get married. And apparently, the Japanese are very religious people because they are always practicing Chastity, "If you do not get married, you do not get kids", and they are following that Fruit, very well.

Germany: Germany has very similar reasons to Japan on why their population is decreasing. First, in Germany, each women only averages 1.4 children in their lifetime and that is the world's 93rd lowest average. The fertility rate has been under 2 children per woman since the beginning of this millennium, so it's not like the decline has just started recently. The highest is Ethiopia with 7.3 children per woman, so you can see that these populations are heading in completely different directions. Another reason is Germany's average age. For females, their average age is 47.2 years old and a males is 45.1 years old. That makes their average age about 46.1 years, the the world's seventh highest. That is the leading cause to the low birth rate. Finally, Germany has 1.5 times the number of men than women. That means not enough women to reproduce with and because of that a decline in reproduction rates.

Spain: To surprise of no one, Spain has basically the same reasons for decline as Japan and Germany. Spain has an even lower fertility rate than Germany with every women having only 1.32 children in their life, the world's 39th lowest fertility rate. To add on to this, Spain's birth per 1000 people is the world's second lowest. For every 1000 people, only 9 birth's are recorded. Also, Spain has Europe's second lowest Youth Unemployment rate at 57.7%. Due to this, Many young between the ages of 15 to 21 are leaving the Earth's 52nd largest country (land wise) to head to more financially stable countries such as England or France in hopes on starting a better life. But it's not just youth unemployment that is suffering, adult unemployment is as well. The Spanish government has said that 26% of University Graduates are not working anywhere and almost 15% of that number is leaving the "Blue Spanish Skies" enroute to more working inclined nations.
FIRST OFF, HOW THE WORLD POPULATION WILL CHANGE
STAYING THE SAME FOR WHAT REASON:
France: The French do not want to be French anymore, but others do. Just to start, almost 25% of all french births, are from non-french mothers. In 2013, there were more then 900,000 births and just less than 194,500 of those were from parents that immigrated from England, Canada, Germany, United States, Brazil or South Africa another 40,000 from other countries. But at the same time, about 35% of people between the ages of 18 and 30 are migrating to regions such as the UK and North America. This is what is causing the major increases in populations in those countries. Altogether, for every 10 migrations there is 6 immigrations and 5 births.

Kazakhstan: The Russian's can be thanked for Kazakhstan's leveled population, as they are the reason for most of the migration, and immigration. In fact, these traitors to both countries having been going back and forth for centuries, all the way back to the fifteenth century. I think a chart will make it easier to explain this comparison.
WHICH RESOURCES/RESOURCE QUANTITIES WILL CHANGE WITH POPULATION CHANGES?
WITH INCREASING POPULATIONS:
Canada: In the year 2011, Canada's forestry, source of energy, (hydro-electric) oil, minerals such as coal made up for 15% of the whole world's usage on these products. But by 2060, almost half of these resources will be totally gone. Amazingly, in the next 39 years, oil will be completely gone, with the world using almost 15 900 000 000 litres of oil a day. Canada is the world's largest producer of wood and manufacturer of lumber products and we can not continue using it at the rate we are. About 60 000 km2 of trees are cut down each year around the world. Also, the amount of coal the Earth uses is almost at twice the speed as oil but, there is much more coal on this Earth. Canada alone has 200 more years of coal which is a bit more than oil. We are not completely running out of resources, since 60% of all of Canada's energy comes from Hydro-Electricity, a renewable energy source. This means that we have energy to last forever, and that will help us preserve the other sources like Coal and Oil for more important things like shipping packages to developing countries.

USA: The United States devours Fossil Fuels like teenage girls devour StarBucks. Like Canada, the US has tons of oil, because we share oil fields. Since we have the same oil fields, we have about the same amount of oil and it will last for the same length, 39 years until it's all gone. Oil is just one of their many resources that will run out soon. The United States has plenty of Natural Gas, 62.382 trillion cubic metres to be exact, but if they continue using it at the rate they are now, this will only last about 91 years. Coal is another story. The United States technically owns 30% of all the world's coal. For the US, they have nearly 300 years of coal remaining, but since their population is growing the quickest of any country the demand and daily use was increasing majorly, experts predicted it to be much less than 300 years. But just in the last few decades most of the United States citizens have gotten much better with preserving energy and using renewable energy sources such as solar-power, and hydro-electricity.

India: India is insanely rich in resources just like Canada and the United States, if not richer! They have over 3 billion tonnes of untouched oil sands, and the government will not allow them to touch. This is excellent for the country in terms of length of time they will have this oil. All of that oil is good to last approximately 350 years after the ban is lifted. And according to the law that won't be for the next 10 to 20 years. Another resource that India is a huge exporter of is Iron Ore and Bauxite (the main Ore inside of Aluminum). India has produced 200 million tonnes of Iron Ore and Bauxite since 2008 and over 50% of that has been exported making it law that they are not allowed to export it anymore.
WITH DECREASING POPULATIONS:
Japan: Japan has always lived with a small resource base being a rather small country already, but the one major resource that they have is beginning to run out in their soil. Petroleum oil, a type of oil that is created when large amounts of organisms die and form together is not meeting its demand. The two smaller oil fields in Northern Japan (Honshu and Hokkaido) don't even supply the country with 1% of the amount of oil needed to feed Japan's population. Natural Gas suffers from the same problem. There is such a high demand, but too low of amounts to supply the country. There is much more coal in the mines, but the government does not want to fund for these companies to recover the coal and the individual companies do not have the money to pay themselves. With the population declining, the cost and demand of oil is expected to drop in Japan, but outside, the countries with increasing populations demand will go up and they will go anywhere to find the resources needed to supply their citizens.

Germany: Germany, a country with rather low amounts of natural resources, may have a positive boost with decreasing population. A country that has barely any natural resources is also the worlds largest producer of Lignite (bituminous and brown coal). This is the mineral that Germany gets more than 50% of their energy from. There is no real estimate on how much Lignite is remaining in the world since different pockets are found randomly constantly. Another mineral that Germany has large abundance of is Potash. Potash is normally mined in the mountains of Northern Germany. This mineral is named after potassium, which it has many compounds of. In 2013 alone, 30 million tonnes of Potash was recovered and produced into fertilizers. This is an important nutrient for the German soil that gives the wheat its unique, delicious taste.

Spain: Spain is a huge producer of minerals and resources. It's ground alone holds 18 very important resources that we use in our everyday life, this includes coal, lignite, copper, lead and iron ore. In the mountains of Spain, Potash can also be found and in the fresh water lakes, you can find some of the healthiest fish in the world. Scrumptious fish, such as Cod, Sole, and Hake are all Native to Spain and with population changes of humans in their native area, the fish's population will not be affected at all. There is the same amount of fish in the Spanish waters today as their was a century ago, and there is expected to be no difference from that number a century from now. In fact, none of Spain's resources should be affected by population change, since 60% of their population uses renewable energy sources and the government makes sure they only use as much energy as needed.
WITH STATIC POPULATIONS:
France: France's natural resources are already limited in quantity, and the French want to keep it at the amount for a while. The French government has decided to import many resources and leave the resources there at the same quantity for some time. Those resources include Coal, Bauxite, Iron Ore and Uranium. Much of their Uranium that is imported comes from Kazakhstan or Canada. Coal from China and Russia, and Iron Ore from China and Australia.

Kazakhstan: Kazakhstan is the world's largest Uranium producer by a lot!!!! Ten-thousand tonnes to be exact! It also has the world's second largest mineral production rate. In total, Kazakhstan has 29 different minerals that can be found within their many field's. Including, Uranium, that they are the world's largest producer in by 10 000 tonnes. Other's that can be found include zinc ore, beryllium, manganese, chromite and copper etc.
WHAT ARE THE PROS AND CONS OF POPULATION CHANGE:
INCREASE:
PROS:
Creates Diverse cultures (Religion, Race, etc.)
Economic Growth (The more people means more people in the work force of Canada)
Brings new ideas to our countries and helps us expand on ideas already in our community
New Medical innovations (medicine), Agricultural Machines (tools), Industrial Devices (technology)
Stronger Cities, Stronger Provinces/States, Stronger Countries
CONS:
Higher Crime Rates
Pollution Increases
Land Prices Increase/Tax
Food and Property Shortages
Higher Unemployment Rates
DECREASE:
PROS:
Lower Unemployment Rate
Less Demand of Resources
CONS:
A Smaller Number of Workers to Create a Product, Deepening the Difference Between Supply and Demand
Lesser Amounts of Money Gained by the Government Due to Smaller Work Pools
More Immigrants Coming in, More Citizens Leaving, we are relying to heavily on the Work of Immigrants that know close to nothing on what they are doing
THANKS FOR LISTENING!
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