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Prediction Markets at Google Presentation
Transcript of Prediction Markets at Google Presentation
Founded by Larry Page and Sergey Brin two Ph.D students at Stanford.
Their mission "to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful"
The "best" page about a subject was the most linked to using that subject
PageRank - the algorithm, for the collective intelligence
Actors of GPM
What is a prediction market?
Prediction markets are similar to the stock market where people used the market to trade with other people
Bo Cowgill - started a prediction market at Google.
enlisted 20% timers
Prediction Markets at
1988 Founded IEM (Iowa Electronic Markets
1998 Google was founded
2003 Bo Cowgill joined google.
2004 He read the book called the "Wisdom of Crowds" by James Surowieckis
2004 Submits proposal Cowgill for Google prediction markets.
2005 Launch Date for GPM
1. Keep the current algorithm called Page Rank .This is where collect the data of the searches and ranks by the most used link on top to bottom.
2. Create a new system called Google Prediction Market (GPM). This is where the system will collect data from groups/ users and predict the outcome for an event or market.
GPM is the chosen Solution because of the IEM model that made of Market, Outcome, and Shares. Googlers/ Users will look at the Market and buy a share to predict if the outcome will win for each quarter. Also, GPM does not use real money in the buying and selling, they will use play money called Goobles. Rewards will be a t-shirt and $1,000 in cash for each quarter.
IEM (Iowa Electronic Markets)
established markets to predict the winners of political elections in the United states and elsewhere.
large, diverse, independent thinking people
The Wisdom of Crowds - James Surowieki
possible to harness the intelligence of the group of people yielding more accurate information than any individual within the group possessed
There was a small participation of traders currently in the markets
Before GPM, trading was discouraging for the users
The current trade market was not social among the traders.
Markets work better as there are more traders
Cowgill wants to make trading more "social and more personal"
The design of GPM
Incentives to increase activity as well as increase users