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PNW Clim Sci 2013 BioEarth Overview

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by

Julian Reyes

on 11 April 2014

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Transcript of PNW Clim Sci 2013 BioEarth Overview

BioEarth:
A Regional Biosphere-Relevant Earth System Model to Inform
Agricultural and Natural Resource Management Decisions
Biological Sciences
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Laboratory for Atmospheric Research
Economics
Biosystems Engineering
School of the Environment
Pacific Northwest National Lab
Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, WSU
UC Santa Barbara
Definition:
“Models from two or more academic disciplines are integrated such that they behave like a unit to external stimuli.”
– Andy Soos, ENN

Integrated Environmental Modeling
Overarching goal:
To develop understanding of regional decadal-scale C:N:H2O interactions in the context of global change to better inform natural and agricultural resource management decisions.

BioEarth
www.cereo.wsu.edu/bioearth
What are the UNINTENDED consequences of a particular management practice or policy that aims to provide for human needs while sustaining our natural resources?
INPUTS
1.
Cultivated agriculture:
crop selection, irrigation, fertilization, tillage, etc
2.
Rangeland:
grazing
3.
Forests:
thinning
4.
Water resources:
Reservoirs, water rights
5.
Water quality:
Nutrient management
6.
Air quality:
Emission regulations, pollutants
7.
Exogenous agents

Detailed management-related model inputs >> Decision-relevant outputs
Example Outputs
Jennifer Adam, Assistant Professor
Julian Reyes, Graduate Research Assistant

Civil and Environmental Engineering
Washington State University
Extension, WSU
Oregon State University
Clark University
National Center for Atmospheric Research
University of Notre Dame
University of Washington
Our Team
Columbia River Basin
as a
Natural and Agricultural Resource

Yakima River Basin
October
September
WA's largest agricultural economy, 5th in nation
Tree fruit, vineyards, field crops, forage, pasture, vegetables
5 reservoirs hold
~30% of mean
annual runoff
Yield change (%)
Dryland crops
Irrigated crops
Year 2030 Projected Impacts on WA Crop Yield
Apples
Sweet Corn
Non-irrigated winter wheat
Non-irrigated spring wheat
Projected climate change and CO impacts on crop yield
(% change)
2
Incorporating management in an ecosystem model
Simulating grazing:
DMI equations
Intensity
Spatially explicit coupling of water, carbon, and nitrogen and lateral movement
Effects of forest thinning in Santa Fe Municipal Watershed
Thinning has potential to offset reductions in annual streamflow due to warming

Timing of streamflow shifts to earlier in the year
Dugger et al. (2013), in prep.
Computer Sciences
Conclusions
Integrated Modeling

Integrating stand-alone models from the various disciplines allow us to more comprehensively explore water and land management policies and best management practices

Opportunities

While Earth system models have included key agriculture-relevant processes in recent years, there are numerous opportunities to make these models more usable

Teams

Making Earth system models “agriculture relevant” will necessitate trans-disciplinary collaborations; we need to continue to work towards removing barriers to collaborative research, including involving stakeholders

VIC: macroscale land surface
RHESSys: spatial detail and lateral connectivity

Combine aspatial approach with explicit routing and lateral movement

Why? Land use decision-making at regional scale
Upscaling
from Adam et al. (2013) Climatic Change (in review)
Changes in regulated supply and demand
Historical
2030s
Projected temperature and precipitation changes will exacerbate water quality and quantity problems

Multiple in- and out-of-stream water uses

Intensifying issues: fish and habitat, tribal
considerations, increased need for renewable energy, etc

BioEarth Stakeholder Engagement Process
Workshop participants
- Research scientists
- Industry representatives
- Government agencies
- Environmental organizations
- Advocacy groups
2013
Nitrogen management
Water supply

2014
Water quality
Air quality
Forests and rangelands

2015
Continuing communication of model outputs, model refinement based on stakeholder input
Stakeholder engagement as an opportunity to improve the utility of Earth system models

1. Develop management scenarios
2. Understand which processes to prioritize
3. Better communicate output to both stakeholders and decision makers

Projected change on summertime nitrogen deposition
% change
due to climate change
(2050s, A1B)
% change
due to U.S. emission reduction
(2050s, MARKAL)
Slide courtesy of Julian Reyes, WSU
Slide courtesy of Serena Chung, WSU
Slide courtesy of Kirti Rajagopalan, WSU
Slide courtesy of Kirti Rajagopalan, WSU
Slide courtesy of Kirti Rajagopalan, WSU
Nergui et al | Poster #47 - Atm N deposition
Miller et al | Poster #48 - Nutrient transport
Mullis et al | Poster #58 - Workflows
Reyes et al | Poster #28 - Rangelands
Yorgey et al | Poster #48 - Stakeholder engagement
Some examples ...
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