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Greater Cairo Metro Line 4 Presentation
Transcript of Greater Cairo Metro Line 4 Presentation
the Line-4 Stations 3. Risk Management Processes 3.2. Establishing the context 3.1. Project Management Planning 3.3. Risks Identification 3.4. Qualitative Risk Analysis 3.5. Quantitative Risk Analysis 3.6. Risk Response Planning 3.7. Risk Monitoring and control Stations Types Stations Entrance PRMG-095
Project Risk Management
Semester : Spring 2013 Supervised by : Dr.Mohamed Abd Elghany
Eng. Maged Swelam Submitted by:
Abd El Hafeez , Hager Mahmoud ID : 700130742
Abd El Sadek , Shaimaa Said ID : 700130844
Hassan, Rasha Mohamed ID : 700130509
Dessouky, Maha Mohamed ID : 700130050 Connection stations Signature station Gate station Typical stations The Greater Cairo Region Metro lines map
1- Phase 1 of the proposed Metro Line 4 runs from a terminal station in 6th October City near the crossing point of Road No.5 and No.7 via depot/workshop, the GEM and Remaya Square to El Malek El Saleh Station, with a length of about 17 km
2- Phase 2 route starts from El Malek El Saleh to Nasr City, with a length of about 23.5 km
Line 4 will be connected to Line 1 and Line 2 in Phase 1 section at El Malek El Saleh Sta. and El Giza Sta., respectively. Furthermore, Line 4 will also connect to Line 3 in Phase 2 at Cairo Fair Sta. Line No.4 phases: The location of Line 4 including other existing and ongoing Metro Lines Shield Tunnel Cross Section Face and Side of the MPB Shield TBM Line Route (Hadaek El Ashgar TO Fostat)
No. Of stations ( 16 Underground + 1 At grade)
Total Length (18 Km)
2 Stories stations ( 1+3 special station)
3 Stories stations (5 stations)
4 Stories stations (2+1 special station)
5 Stories stations (1+2 double platform stations)
Connections with Line 1 and Line 2
Inter-connection Terminal Station at Hadaek El Ashgar Metro Line 4 Phase 1 Route Map El Malek El Saleh Station in Old Cairo will allow interchange with Metro Line No.1 Giza Station will be located by the existing Giza Station of the Egyptian National Railways (ENR) and Metro Lin No.2 El Remaya Station shall be the signature station Hadaek El Ashgar Station shall be the Gate station 3.1.1. Purpose & Objectives 3.1.2. Roles & Responsibilities * Project Approval Sponsor (NAT) * Project Team (Manager,Designers) * Project Stakeholders 3.1.3. Risk Management Strategy 3.1.4. Risk Management Process * Risk Identification * Risk Assessment - Qualitative Risk Analysis - Quantitative Risk Analysis * Risk Response * Risk Monitoring & Control 3.1.5. Risk Documentation 3.1.6. Approvals
The tender preparation for the project will be based on the (NAT) procurement
documents and the ( JICA) guidelines for procurement without contradicting the laws
, rules and regulation in force of Egyp 3.2.1. Project Tender Type The Contract used is "Unit Price" 3.2.2. Type of Contract Safe and stable structures. Provide a sheep, easy and helpful transportation mean. 3.2.3. Project objective 3.2.4. Project location Cairo -Egypt 3.2.5.Project Participations * Employer : NAT
* The consultant : Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
&Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC)
* The main contractors : The Arab Contractors Company& Orascom company & Vinci company& Bouygues company 3.2.6.Project Expected Starting Date January 2014 3.2.7.Project Expected Ending Date 2018 3.2.8. Project cost Total Price Of Civil & Structures Works for Phase 1 The JICA specified rates for the 2010 financial year 3.2.9. Project units Group of tunnel lines linked together 3.2.10. Methods of construction • For tunnels : TBM method is used • For station : Top-Down construction method is used and the diaphragm wall is used as soil supporter There are two methods of excavation related to each method
1-The first is called Bottom-Up Construction 2- The second is called Top-Down construction Construction follows the following phases: 1. Construction of guide walls 2. Diaphragm Wall 3. An excavation is initially carried out up to the level of the roof slab of the structure 4. The roof slab on the excavation bottom is concreted 5. Backfilling works are carried out over the slab and the surface of the soil is reinstated 6. The excavation works for the station or the tunnel commence underneath the first slab (roof slab) by means of the ramp which has been left at a certain point 7. concrete placement using tremie concreting method , from the bottom to the top of the excavation 8. Upon completion of the excavation of the entire trench, works related to the construction of permanent bearing structure elements commence.
These elements usually consist of4 slabs
• Roof Slab
• Ticket Slab
• Intermediate Slab: Platform roof
• Raft Slab :final slab and the lateral walls(The thickness of the slab vary between 1.35- 1.5 m) 9. Soil injection: is used to form a low permeability plug, 7 m in thickness, at the base of the walls. 10. Installing of Precast Segments
The precast concrete lining segments are about 1.2 meter width 11. Finishing tunnel process :tunnel interior and services installation 12. Laying of rail track in railway tunnel * Design Risks 1- Delay for approval design drawing by the client : Some structural drawings are not approved “valid for construction" when needed for the construction on site. 2- Design Variation : Due to inadequate or insufficient site information (Survey report) and unexpected obstacles on the site. 3- Variations by the client : Due to Inappropriateness of the design and the specifications for Egypt. * Management Risks 1- Late delivery of Specific spare parts: shipped from overseas (New TBM) :Too long time to receive spare coming from abroad. 2- Shortage In Raw Material: Shortage of one or several raw materials (sand, cement and aggregates) for concrete. Occurred during Egyptian revolution (25/01/2011) and we supposed that it will happen again according to unstable situation in Egypt. 3- Shortage of Steel for Segments: Delays in the supply of steel for segment production. * Economic - Financial Risks 1- Stoppage of S/C Arrangement works: Arrangement S/C is not completely paid. Announcement from S/C of work stoppage, (impossibly for J.V. to find other S/C.), happened for metro line number 3 and we supposed that it will happen again according to unstable situation in Egypt. 2- Cost overrun: Costs could rise significantly during the course of the project. 3- Late Payment by Client: After 25/1/2011 events. Client discovers that legal procedures were not followed (new price, additional works, value engineering, price revision). * Technical Risks 1.1. General Features of Metro Line 4 1.2. Civil Works (Tunnel) 2.1. Line No.4 Phase 1 1- Major TBM Breakdown : Failure of a critical element or system of the TBM. 2- Improper Installation of the Segments : Insufficient accuracy of segments alignment during their installation, cracks, Leakages. 3- Crack In Concrete : Crack in concrete Leading to no compliance with our contractual specifications. * Environmental Risks 1- Unforeseen Archeological Site :TBM hit some Archeological site while constructing tunnels in Al-Ahram Street or pyramids area which may delay the schedule until it previewed by Authorities. 2- Unforeseen obstacle on TBMs route : TBM hit deep unforeseen obstacle as leg sheet piles, ancient construction, and unforeseen wall. 3- Existing public utilities not diverted by client : Interface between existing public utility not yet diverted by client and works being performed by JV. * Site & Area conditions / Security Risks 1- Traffic Jam : when constructing stations it will close Al-Ahram Street in some places or narrowing it for a long time and will divert traffic to the surrounding streets which are very narrow. 2- Difficulties in Traffic Diversions : Difficulty to organize the traffic Diversions Drawing, validation, execution in the local context. 3- Safety with excavation equipment working on sites / lifting operations : Collision of people by heavy equipment during excavation works and lifting operation. Samples of Risks Identification The contingency mentioned in JICA study
The Total budget cost can be calculated By USD $ as following 1- Sensitivity Analysis 1. Rupture of TBMs energy supply: The actual socio-political context in Egypt can lead to a rupture of supplies, particularly of gasoil supply. This will impact all the J.V activities , specially TBMs activities 2. Specific spare parts not arrived when needed (New TBM): Too long time to receive spare coming from abroad. 2- Decision Tree Cost of a major activity in a construction project: The cost for this activity is affected by the following:-
1- Coordination between departments: Lake of coordination with departments (Structure, Archeological, Roads, Sanitary, and Power) will cause delay in time schedule
2- Project team over loaded or working in other project in the same time: Caused team distraction, no control over staff priorities, schedule delay & poor work quality.
3- Inexperienced staff assigned: Affect work quality, causing rework &schedule delay. The Expected Cost for These Activities
EC = EV7*0.30+EV8*0.70
EC = 183250*0.30+208500*0.70 = 200925 3- Fault Tree 1-Inadequate Quality of Manufacturing of Tunnel Segments: No compliance to the quality of the tunnel segment in terms of dimensions, aspect, resistance and durability when delivered / used on Probability of Inadequate Quality of Manufacturing of Tunnel Segments= (0.284+0.378+0.56)+(0.284*0.378*0.56)-(0.284*0.378)-(0.284*0.56)-(0.378*0.56) = 0.80 2- Sinkhole and Settlement (Slurry): Risk of ground front collapse for surrounding structures. Probability of Sinkhole and Settlement = (0.1+0.385+0.61)+(0.1*0.385*0.61)-(0.1*0.385)-(0.1*0.61)-(0.385*0.61) = 0.78 4- Pert Analysis Shortage In Raw Material , Insufficient Space to Store the Segments and Lack of place for equipment storage a. What is the probability that a budget of $ 3.8 million would be sufficient for the shortage in Raw Material?
Tp = 3,763,333 p = 68,272 Ϭ
Z = (3,800,000-3,763,333)/68,272 = 0.54 from table
Probability = 0.7054 * 100 = 70.54%
b. What is the probability that the cost of lack of space for storage could exceed 1.6 million$?
Tp = 1,521,667 Ϭp = 39,756
Z = (1,600,000-1,521,667)/39,756 = 1.97
Probability = 0.9756 * 100 = 97.56%
c. What is the extra contingency to add to the base estimate for shortage in Raw Material so as to guarantee a 90% chance of properly covering all shortage in Raw Material expenses?
probability = 90%
from table Z=1.28
Tp = 3,763,333 p = 68,272
1.28 = (X- 3,763,333)/68,272 X= 3850721.16
Exta Contingency = 3850721-3763333 = $ 87,388 5- Expected value Contingency =( 0.50+0.75+0.75+1.4+0.25+0.50+0.70+0.48+1.05+0.70+1.05+1.6+0.80+1.35+1.9 ) * 1000000 = 13,780,000 $ 3.4.4. Risks Ranking