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Leadership and Strategy in Complex Futures for AVCLP

A Presentation to the Alpine Valley Community Leadership Leading Change Program
by

Paul Higgins

on 25 March 2014

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Transcript of Leadership and Strategy in Complex Futures for AVCLP

Strategy Approaches to Uncertainty
Leadership and Strategy in Complex Futures
3
Futurists
@futuristpaul
http://www.wfs.org/content/what-people-think-i-do-meme-futurist
?
http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1415943
B
A
A prize for alternate
views
Simple
Complicated
Complex
Chaos
SCR
SAR
ASR
PSR
Principles
Short Term
Low Cost
Hypothesis
At Odds
Judgement v Movement
So what should you do?
Contextual
http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/artificial-intelligence/how-google-self-driving-car-works
http://ruff22.tumblr.com/post/51877569884/keeping-it-modern
http://www.jasnor.com.au/
http://thisisnthappiness.com/post/51451044520/remember
http://cognitive-edge.com/library/more/video/introduction-to-the-cynefin-framework/
Time
Complexity
Uncertainty
C
L
A
S
H
Crowdsourcing
Nature of Work
"DARPA's mission is to prevent technological surprise for the USA and create technological surprise for its adversaries"
Big Data
Tips
Y
What If?
Examples
Collaboration Economy
The problem
Real World
Examples
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2014/soft-robotic-fish-moves-like-the-real-thing-0313.html
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/life_on_mekong_faces_threats_as_major_dams_begin_to_rise/2741/
http://www.kurzweilai.net/a-step-towards-programmable-materials#!prettyPhoto
http://futurescope.co/post/79654404728/dicty-world-race-2014-not-quite-slime-mold
http://spectrum.ieee.org/geek-life/reviews/the-latest-diy-craze-brain-hacking
http://www.wired.com/business/2014/03/car-dealers-fear-teslas-plan-end-oil-changes-forever/
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/16/opinion/sunday/the-rise-of-anti-capitalism.html?_r=1
http://freedomwat.ch/2014/03/14/perseus-atlas-launch-global-high-frequency-bitcoin-trading-platform/
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2013-02/11/ibm-watson-medical-doctor/viewall
http://www.impactlab.net/2013/10/01/47-of-u-s-jobs-could-be-done-by-computers-study/
http://www.cio.com/article/746407/Big_Data_Helps_Walgreens_Treat_Walk_in_Patients
http://www.fastcolabs.com/3020036/this-algorithm-can-predict-your-success-at-university
http://techcrunch.com/2013/10/02/monsanto-acquires-weather-big-data-company-climate-corporation-for-930m/
Scan Wide and Deep
The future is already here it is just
unevenly distributed -
William Gibson
Decide who you need to influence
Create the resources - sandbox approach
Decide where you sit on a continuum between judgement and movement
Experiment
Full transcript