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Hunger Games Combat Model
Transcript of Hunger Games Combat Model
Red: Katniss (0.452) Conclusion Through these three scenarios, we can see that Katniss's team is not likely to win, especially when the team is weakened or injured. Although Katniss had a skill level of 11, higher than any individual, she cannot easily bring the team to victory. As predicted, Cato's team has a higher probability of winning in each scenario, increasing every time Katniss's team weakens. However, our results are merely numerical statistics while The Hunger Games is a story, full of camaraderie, emotional drama, and young love, all factors that are impossible for us to model. Even though the odds are not in her favor, Katniss still manages to emerge triumphant in the Games. We used a stochastic model to most accurately represent this scenario. For each stage depicted in the matrix, we wrote an equation showing the flow of its probability Our Results: Blue: Cato (0.659)
Red: Katniss (0.341) Blue: Cato (0.80)
Red: Katniss (0.20) For this scenario, we wrote new equations to model the different conditions and again used Euler's method to solve for the probabilites. We used Euler's method to solve our equations We can see that just by changing Katniss' team's
skill level by a small amount, the result probabilities change drastically. Cato's team's chance of winning as compared to Katniss' rises from 5:4 to almost 2:1. Clearly, food and shelter are large factors in the Hunger Games. Skill Levels 11 8 7 10 9 10 26 0 1 Number of People on Katniss' team 29 2 3 1 2 3 0 Number of People on Cato's team Katniss Victory
Cato Victory As we can see, our predictions were correct. Cato's team has a higher chance of winning. Results: The odds are still in Cato's team's favor, and this time, they have an even higher chance of winning. In this situation, Cato's team has a significantly higher chance of winning, in fact, 4 times higher. With Peeta serving as a handicap, it's very difficult for Katniss to win. Luckily, in the movie, Peeta is healed before Cato's team attacks, or else the Hunger Games may had a different outcome. Totals: BUT WAIT What if Katniss won in our model? 4th Scenario So, in the beginning, Cato's alliance acquired a large amount of supplies. Their strategy was to divide up the supplies so that the opposing team would not destroy them all at once. For every pile of supplies that Katniss finds, Cato's team loses one skill level and Katniss gains one skill level. How many would Katniss have to find to have a 60% chance of winning? So, after plugging in values into our mathcad system, we can see that Katniss needs to find 5 supply piles in order to have at least a 60% chance of winning. As we can see, many different aspects of the Hunger Games can be manipulated to get certain results. The probability of a team winning depends on the skill level which can be affected by a multitude of factors including injury, supplies, alliances, natural disasters, and of course emotions. THANKS FOR LISTENING!