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Strategic Horizon

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by

Nigel Somerville

on 29 November 2016

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Transcript of Strategic Horizon

The Global Strategic
Risk Horizon

The Strategic Risk Horizon
2015 - Risk Horizon
Major Global Risk Trends
Regional Risks
Nature of Risks
Environmental
Geopolitical
Societal
Economic
Technological
Environmental
Geopolitical/economic interplay
- Intertwined historically - now accelerating
- Cyber effect
- Effects:
Disruption to International trade - self interest
Influence through role of the state
Access to resources

...slower growth...social unrest..?
Emerging Technology
- Revolutionise sectors & relationships
- (Synthetic biology, gene drivers, AI..)
- Opportunity vs effects
Concerns:
Foreseen & unforeseen
Accelerators - technology, computing power, hyperconnectivity
Policy, frameworks, regulation, time to agree
Public dialogue
5 Natures of risks
Why 2015 different
Regional vulnerabilities
Key Global Concerns
3 Mega-trends of influence

Geopolitical
Societal
Economic
Technological
Change in Trends
Key Risks
Geopolitical
Social instability
Economics
Environment
Technological
Urbanisation
- Unprecedented transition..Africa & Asia
- Cities = risk convergence
- Key issues:
Infrastructure
Social instability & inequality
Health
Climate Change

Regional Variances
Full transcript