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The Dynamics of Attention


Bob Boynton

on 19 December 2012

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Transcript of The Dynamics of Attention

Advantage into Liability Celeb Got Two Million Views Paris Hilton Announces her candidacy Thanks to the white haired guy 7.4 million views Going Viral
The Dynamics of Attention
G.R.Boynton And More

20 million Yes We Can
13 million I've Got a Crush on Obama
21 million Bush versus the shoes Going Viral A Dominant Form Campaign Effects Exogenous Factors Flow of information | Functional Form Number Views | Embedding video on site Blogging including url Private conversation Borrowing epidemic Celeb 2 million views Campaign office opens 6,400 views The Dominant Form July 1 through Election Each day new videos added to database Each day views that day recorded Time series used: July 1 through October 4
415 for Obama; 81 for McCain The Process Mathematical Formulation Candidates establish channel and post videos Supporters and opponents stop by to view Twenty thumbnails and brief title is only identification Difference in potential audiences Over time more and more of the potential audience has viewed Conception: introduction of video and exhaust audience Or, consistent with prior research, exogenous factor and decay V(t) = aV(t-1) + bU(t) For 0 < a < 1 system stable, goes to asymptote 490 of the 496 videos stable Use regression to estimate a and b Fit is extremely good Campaign Effects This is the 'driver' How does the 20 thumbnail
page produce not 'going viral'? One campaign effect:
the faster videos are posted the faster they go to the asymptote. If a is small go to asymptote

If a is large go to asymptote
more slowly. Interaction Between Videos Exogenous Factors Campaign events that have impact on viewing V(t) = .73V(t-1) + 2676
r-square = .99 Projected on first 17 days is 9,800 views Eventual views is 33,243
search produced 23,000 views V(t) = aV(t-1) + bU(t)
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