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IAEA - Nuclear Non-Proliferation

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Anna Ou

on 8 August 2013

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Transcript of IAEA - Nuclear Non-Proliferation

IAEA - Promoting A Non-Proliferation Regime
Case Study: Israel's Nuclear Ambiguity
Case Study #1: Iran and the IAEA's Difficult Relationship


Present deadlock
Possible approaches
Case Study #2:
Nuclear Instability and Arms Race in Southeast Asia

1. Adoption of Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs)
- Much more efficient than conventional nuclear power reactors
- Can extract 60 times the energy from uranium
- Can also extract Plutonium-239 from the fuel waste if machinery parts added on
- Possible for countries to divert nuclear supply for non-civil uses
- IAEA's International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO)
- Aims to assist with the development of FBRs that have
closed fuel cycles
- Lack of funding, much of it comes from extra-budgetary
resources
- Criticism on the comprehensiveness of INPRO's FBR
knowledge
2. Inconsistencies between Domestic and International Standards of Non-Proliferation
- expansion of global nuclear market = potential for domestic economic growth for nuclear supplier countries
- Leading uranium suppliers: Kazakhstan, Canada and Australia
looking to profit
- Concerns: nuclear instability and transparency gaps in Asian states
- Kazakh/Russia joint venture to sell uranium to China
- Australia reversing mining policy
- Canada relaxing export regulations
3. Limits of IAEA Safeguards
Case Study #4: The Role of the US in Negotiating with South and North Korea
Nuclear Disarmament and the Role of Nuclear Member States


2. Role of Member States and the U.S.

Four advantages of nuclear disarmament (Perkovich, 2008)
Preventing Proliferation
Preventing nuclear terrorism
Reducing threat of nuclear annihilation
Optimism in global leadership
UN Security Council: Resolution1887
Current Problems in Iranian enrichment activities
Clarification of Unresolved Issues
Possible Military Dimensions
Additional Protocol
Iranian Response
Impartiality of IAEA intelligence
Legal NPT rights
Iran cannot prove a negative
Non-Aligned Movement
Challenges facing the IAEA
Latent nuclear weapons- "being one screwdriver's turn away"
Absence of Global System for Nuclear Order
Other more efficient actors
India - Pakistan Background
3 wars since independence
Territorial dispute over Kashmir at the Line of Control
Hindu nationalism against Muslim fundamentalism
Collaborations on the NPT between the IAEA, UN Security Council and UN Secretariat
Definitions:

Non-proliferation: halting the development and spread of nuclear weapons.

Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT): aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapon technology, to foster the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and to further the goal of disarmament through measures like mandatory safeguards (terms, unique to each nation, to help reach goals of NPT)
- recognizes UK, US, China, Russia and France as nuclear states

Negotiating the NPT with South Korea
Negotiating the NPT with North Korea
Withdrawal from the Treaty on 2003.
Future Challenges
Lack of intelligence and information.
New leader.
Who has the bargaining leverage?
Tactics of delay -Yong S. Han
The United States and the NTP
Cold War era - nuclear arms race.
Establishment of United Nations Atomic Energy Commission (UNAEC) by the US, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
Baruch Plan to the UNAEC in 1946.
Draft non-proliferation Treaty to the Eighteen-Nation Disarmament Committee in 1965.
Obliged IAEA safeguards in order ensure peaceful nuclear activities.
After several amendments, NPT opened for signature in 1968.
- Nuclear renaissance moving to the east

- Environmental concerns over burning
of fossil fuel provide push for nuclear energy

- According to the IAEA, currently 69
nuclear power plants under construction
around the world

Nuclear Energy Sustainability & Proliferation Resistance
- Increased interest promoting a trend of
nuclear proliferation that can potentially
undermine the security of fissile materials
and increase the vulnerability of global
nuclear safety

The bigger issues
Increase in nuclear weapons after Pakistan's loss in war
Refusal by both the countries to sign the NPT
Came close to war in 1999 and 2002
Possibility of an accidental nuclear war
Conclusion : Nuclear instability in South Asia
Arms Race
Department of Atomic Research in 1954 in India while Atomic Energy Commission in 1957 in Pakistan
India detonated 5 nuclear test devices. Days later Pakistan detonated 6 nuclear devices.
Proliferation and NPT in the region
India's reasons for not signing NPT
see the treaty as Western supremacy.
threat to their sovereignty
racist/unfair
Pakistan's reasons for not signing the NPT
India hasn't signed the NPT
US supports India while sanctions imposed on Pakistan
2 sides to the presence of nuclear weapons.
Nuclear Stability:
Deterrence - Similar situation to the Cold War between Russia and US
Nuclear Instability:
Deterrence will not work
hatred towards each other since independence
religious differences
lesser scale of destruction compared to US and Russia
Proliferation Concerns in Pakistan
Politically unstable nation
weapons by militants if the country disintegrates
Presence of terrorist groups :
weapons in the wrong hands
Proof of Proliferation:
Abdul Qadeer Khan - international proliferation network
connections established between Al Qaeda and Pakistani nuclear scientists
Proliferation Concerns in India
Security threats from Pakistan
India-China relations
sale of nuclear power reactors to Pakistan
nuclear design to Pakistan which was passed to Libya
North Korea's nuclear program
increase in Chinese warheads.
Iran's nuclear program
India's involvement in Afghanistan against terrorist groups.
Main concerns surround the location of India in Asia
Rajesh Mishra
India and NPT
Lack of trust in NPT
China's actions while having signed the NPT
weakness of treaty resulting in more nuclear states


Not a threat to the NPT - work together with US to achieve global order
Proliferation in South Asia
Security Dilemma :
Pakistan vs India
India vs China

Vertical proliferation: India and Pakistan
increasing nuclear arsenal
Horizontal proliferation: Pakistan
proliferation network
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
- "World’s centre of cooperation in the nuclear field"
- Works with members states and other partner organizations (like research organizations) to “promote safe, secure and peaceful nuclear technologies"
- home of NPT

- Resolve coordination problems
- Address intentional political problems as a group rather than through bilateral meetings
- A third-party enforcer and administrator (NPT safeguards)
- Acted as a forum for nations to come together in one place, in a low cost way to seek out comprehensive treaty
- Dispute system
- different stances by different groups of countries
Conclusion: Political instability is due to proliferation of nuclear weapons
What needs to be done!
vertical proliferation:
bind both India and Pakistan to the NPT
horizontal proliferation:
UN Security Council involvement along with IAEA to reduce proliferation by non-state actors
Change NPT policies :
India joins as a nuclear weapon state
Pakistan also joins
Compromise over Kashmir:
Independent Kashmir Valley
Division across river Chenab
US- China nuclear agreements
Background Information
NPT Rights
Geopolitical climate
History
“Iran may be paranoid but as the saying goes, even the paranoid have real enemies.”
Encourages open dialogue
Strengthening measures in post-conflict areas
Information provider between organizations
Fundamental goal 'sustainable disarmament'
3. UNODA

- Unequal standards between the 3 levels of states in the NPT (nuclear weapons, non-nuclear weapons, non-signatory)
- US - India deal; waiver granted for India
- Discriminatory? Preferential treatment?
- Ad hoc nature of nuclear safeguards
- Lack of standardized norms can make it hard to
understand what the consequences will be
- Bandwagon effect: Iraq (1991), North Korea, Iran, Israel, etc.
1. Critics of Nuclear Disarmament

NATO
Increase in nuclear proliferation
'Breakout' situations
During times of war
(Sagan, 2009)
The Issue
Effectiveness versus credibility
United Nations Secretariat
- Headed by the Secretary – General
- Carries out the diverse day-to-day work of UN through its international staff working in duty stations worldwide
- SG hold high level meeting, affirm NPT there
- "Part of the United Nations’ identity"
- Five point proposal on nuclear disarmament
1. Fulfill their NPT obligations
2. UNSC discuss disarmament, non-nuclear nations stop nuclear capabilities
3. NPT members follow their IAEA safeguards
4. Nuclear-weapon states make public action towards non-proliferation
5. Actions in addition to nuclear non-proliferation are needed
Key words
: Leadership, Cooperation
- Maintain international peace and security and cooperating in solving international problems
- Enforcement powers, punishment

- Resolution 1540, proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons threat to peace
- terms of NPT in ths
- binding terms to stop proliferation
- interconnectedness with IAEA, IAEA programs relevant to implementation of terms
- Resolution 1737, part of more resolutions, forbid supply of nuclear materials and technology to Iran, freeze participants assets
- enforcement
- interconnected, IAEA conference, resolutions, NPT affirmed
United Nations Security Council (UNSC)
Nuclear Umbrella
: "the guarantee of military protection that nuclear weapons armed states are seen to extend, if need be with nuclear weapons, to their non-nuclear weapons armed allies." - The International Law and Policy Institute
Extended deterrence
: one state (defender) threatens the use of force against another state (potential attacker) in an attempt to prevent that state from using military force against an ally (protégé).
- Paul K. Huth
Diplomatic give-and-take theory
: combines reassurance with conditional reciprocity by providing inducements on the conditions that potential proliferators accept nuclear restraints.
- Leon V. Sigal
South Korea with ambitions of pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
As a means of deterrence.
Desire heightened after the success of North Korea's nuclear test.
US response?
Best intelligence estimates Israel has the sixth largest stockpile of nuclear weapons worldwide
Believed to have started production as early as 1967 following the Six Day War with Egypt, Jordan, Syria
But they've never admitted to having them
Israel was one of the first states to sign onto Eisenhower's Atoms for Peace program
Between AFP and France's assistance in building the Dimona reactor in 1958, Israel's nuclear program was off to a good start
1969: Richard Nixon and Israeli PM Golda Meir agree to keep Israel's nuclear weapons projects under wraps
1980s: Mordechai Vanunu leaks information about Israel's nuclear weapons to the NYT
One of only three states who have never signed the NPT, and consistently promise they "will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons to the Middle East"

whatever that means...
Israel's existential threat
Israel and Iran have had a bad relationship since the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution
Iran is one of 32 states that have declared Israel an illegitimate state (the only one with a current policy of eradicating Israel)
Iran is a member of the IAEA and does use nuclear power for peaceful purposes, but has been non-compliant with the NPT's safeguards since the early 2000s
Consensus that Iran is pursuing research that could enable it to make a bomb, but unclear if it is actually doing so (no diversion of nuclear material so far; if they were to build one, at least 5-10 years away)
Iran is one of the most vocal states calling for a nuclear weapon free zone in the Middle East, but someone is not cooperating for some reason...

Israel on the IAEA
"Iran's nuclear activities are conducted in violation of all relevant U.N. Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and are carried out with impunity, as measures of the international community have no effect on Iran's nuclear program. Consequently, Iran is utterly indifferent to decisions and wishes of the international community. It may be looking even to a pretext to withdraw from the NPT, which has long been misused to mask Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons, while ostensibly pretending to uphold its principles...
"The concept of a region free of WMD that has never been put to test even in the most peaceful regions of the world, is certainly much less applicable to the current volatile and hostile Middle East region. Any attempt to reach this goal requires a signifiant transformation of the regional trend and the creation of some elementary pre-conditions.

Therefore, no diplomatic and political campaign in the international institutions, for whatever motivations or purposes, could compensate for the acute deficit created for decades by non-compliance, proliferation, violence and terrorism practiced by those regimes."

Dr. Shaul Chorev, Head of Israel Atomic Energy Commission at the 2012 General Conference of the IAEA
Six-Party Talks
: a series of meetings between the United States, Republic of Korea, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the Russian Federation with aims of resolving North Korea’s nuclear crisis through peaceful, diplomatic means.
Successful in negotiating with North Korea to shut down its nuclear facilities.

Israel thinks IAEA has been ineffective
Clearly can't keep Israel secure
If Iran can ignore them--and they've actually signed onto the NPT!--why shouldn't Israel?
So what should they do?
What WILL they do?
Join the NPT?
North Korea pulled out of the Six-Party Talks in 2009.
Nuclear tests in 2006, 2009, and 2013.
Israel could come clean about its nuclear weapon capabilities and join the NPT, IAEA
This would enable it to take advantage of the IAEA's research and technology
Open up the issue for public debate, allow more experts to weigh in
Forward non-proliferation and perhaps disarmament

But this would mean increased international pressure for disarmament
Stoke the fires in Iran and other enemies
Strain relationship with US and Western allies
And probably lose a major tactical advantage, risky when you have a lot of enemies...

Almost all the deterrence, at a much lower cost
Enemies may find it wiser to overestimate than underestimate
This would allow it to keep the good will of the US
It could continue to develop its nuclear technology with absolutely no international oversight

But this will perpetuate the nuclear conflict with Iran
Strain ties with other countries, some countries have expressed distaste for Israeli hypocrisy
Hard to negotiate when you don't know your relative strength, for both parties
If it comes down to an attack on Israel, their opponents might call their bluff
Maintain Ambiguity?
HOWEVER
Keep nukes, tell IAEA to beat it?
Deterrence?
This will probably end badly
Arab League has said multiple Arab states will withdraw from Treaty if Israel does this

If Israel chooses to maintain its ambiguity, it enjoys all of the perks of nuclear deterrence at a relatively low cost

If Israel comes clean, whether it destroys its arsenal or not, they will face retaliation from Iran and Arab states, a high price to pay
Israel and the IAEA
IAEA has not been strong enough to keep Iran's nuclear program in check, provides little reassurance to Israel
The problems that prevent them from stopping their vertical proliferation are beyond the scope of the IAEA
Tensions around Iran's nuclear program are escalating
If the IAEA can't reign in Iran, little hope of Israel joining.
If they can, it's still uncertain, since they enjoy every advantage in retaining their ambiguity.
Current Situation: Shooting at the Line of Control
Full transcript