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Socio-economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
Transcript of Socio-economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
M.Sc Scientific Research and Communication
MOAC DTC, University of WarwIck ADaptation High Latitudinal Regions Low Latitudinal Regions Other Impacts Increased Pressure On Natural Resources Soil: Erosion
Water: Shortage, Salinisation Competetion for water between agriculture and urban and industrial users
Peak irrigation demands expected as severity of heat waves intensifies
Irrigation to become expensive
Rise in need to build irrigation networks in new locations
Competition for land and water will certainly become a key social and political issue. (FAO, 2003)
Trade Related Impacts Studies by Fisher et al (2005) and Parry et al (2004) confirm that including trade impacts decreases the overall negative impact of climate change
Increase in production potential in mid- to high-latitudes and a decrease in low latitudes.
Shifts in regional production centers Many developing countries will become net agricultural importers. (FAO).
Fisher et al estimated that by 2080 cereal imports by developing countries would rise by 10-40%.
Increase in disease incidence and stress market related impacts Policy Changes Change in cropping strategies Demographic changes Increased Role of Forests Food security Vulnerabilities of industry, settlement and society are mainly related to extreme weather events rather than to gradual climate change Introduction These vulnerabilities are also subject to specific georgraphic, sectoral and social contexts. (IPCC) High-risk locations, particularly coastal and riverine areas, and areas whose economies are closely linked with climate-sensitive resources, such as agricultural
the impact of climate change on global agricultural GDP by 2080 could be between -1.5 and +2.6 Percent, with considerable regional variation. (Fischer et al; 2002) Longer seasons, more pest generations
Increase in frequency of draughts, floods etc
Conditions conducive for increase in intensity and spread of disease
Increased likelihood of crop failure in smallholder and subsistence farming households
Threat of new diseases and increased susceptibility. GM in spotlight due to increase in demand for stress resistant varieties: draught stress, flood stress, disease reistance
Increase in food prices as cultivation becomes cost-intensive
Greater role of private players: supermarkets in particular, biotechn companies (Monsanto)
Competetion for growing valuable crops (for biofuels)
Farmers may find themselves more exposed to marketing problems and credit crises brought on by higher capital and operating costs Decreasing prices of some seeds/varieties to support continued use of crops that are not well suited to the changing climate
Providing disaster payments when crops fail
Restricting competition through import quotas
Help expand the flexibility allowed in crop mixes
Diversification of income sources
Increase in environmental migrants due to extreme events
Eventual impacts on human development indicators, such as health and education
Livelihood impacts including sale of other assets, indebtedness, and dependency on food relief
More pressure on urban areas
Uneven distribution in rural and urban areas
Relocation forest economic activity
Resource-dependent communities to respond adversely
Loss of forest resources may directly affect 90% of the 1.2 billion forest-dependent people who live in extreme poverty (FAO)
Destabalises GCM all the more Loss of predictability of climate eg. Rainfall patterns
Introduction of late-maturing crop varieties or species
Switching cropping sequences
Adjusting timing of field operations,
Conserving soil moisture through appropriate tillage methods
Altering the timing or location of cropping activities
Change in cropping patters, cropping cycles and the kind of crops that can be grown. availability stability of supplies access utilisation UNEP, 2002
The GCM-based assessment of the IPCC contemplates a change in global surface temperature of 1.5 to 4.5°C by the year 2050, as a result of enhanced greenhouse gases. (Schneider et al, 2007)
Regional vulnerabilities to food deficits may increase Lower yields may result not only in measurable economic losses, but also in malnutrition and even famine.
GMT changes in the range of 5.5°C or more could lead to a pronounced increase in food prices of, on average, 30% (IPCC)
Parry et al. (2001), for instance, estimate that many tens of millions of the world’s population are at risk of hunger due to climate change, and billions are at risk of water shortages Fischer et al. (2005) estimate that climate change will increase the number of undernourished people in 2080 by 5-26%, relative to the no climate change case reaction of agricultural communities, Governments and other stakeholders to such pressures determine the future of agriculture and the ultimate impact of climate change A major adaptive response: breeding of resistant crop varieties by utilizing genetic resources that may be better adapted to new climatic and atmospheric conditions. AUTONOMOUS PLANNED INCREASED INVESTEMENT IN
COMMUNICATION INSURANCE SCHEMES POLICY CHANGES TO ACCOMODATE ADAPTATION TECHNOLOGY CROPPING STRATEGIES USE OF GREENHOUSES AND POLYTUNNELS HIGHER VULNERABILITY
Recent studies suggest that agricultural crop productivity in Africa willbe adversely affected by any warming above current levels (Kurukulasuriya et al., 2006; Gonese, 2007)
Losses of up to 9 in sub-Saharan Africa. The regions likely to face the biggest challenges in food security are Africa, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, and Asia, particularly south Asia (FAO, 2006).
Rice production in Asia could decline by 3.8 during the current century. (Murdiyarso, 2000)
Wheat production in India and China would increase by between 7 and 25 in 2050 if the CO2 fertilisation effect is taken into account (Lin et al)
Vulnerability to climate change is systematically greater in developing countries which in most cases are located in lower, warmer latitudes. Considerable investments needed
Need of research base and the availability of investment capital
Better use of natural resources
Inadequate agricultural research, training, and credit now limit the capacity of farmers to adapt to
climate change. Exporters in middle and high latitudes (such as the U.S., Canada, and Australia) stand to gain.
Along with possible carbon fertilisation effects and a longer growing season these areas see quality-of-life benefits from winter warming, and some areas welcome changes in precipitation patterns, although such changes could have other social consequences
Fischer et al. (2002) concluded that globally there will be major gains in potential agricultural land by 2080, particularly in North America (20-50%) and the Russian Federation (40-70%)
End result measured in terms of production and income will not necessarily compensate for the direct costs involved
Possible Impacts Adverse impact on biodiversity (Hannah et al, 2002)
Difficult to carry out sustainable agriculture
Shift in prdocution preferances towards biofuels may have socio-economic impacts
Modeled studies have suggested that the overall effect of moderate climate change on world food production may be small, as reduced production in some areas is balanced by gains in others.(IPCC)