Loading presentation...

Present Remotely

Send the link below via email or IM

Copy

Present to your audience

Start remote presentation

  • Invited audience members will follow you as you navigate and present
  • People invited to a presentation do not need a Prezi account
  • This link expires 10 minutes after you close the presentation
  • A maximum of 30 users can follow your presentation
  • Learn more about this feature in our knowledge base article

Do you really want to delete this prezi?

Neither you, nor the coeditors you shared it with will be able to recover it again.

DeleteCancel

Make your likes visible on Facebook?

Connect your Facebook account to Prezi and let your likes appear on your timeline.
You can change this under Settings & Account at any time.

No, thanks

Crime Analytics

Title
by

Shashank Mallya

on 3 September 2012

Comments (0)

Please log in to add your comment.

Report abuse

Transcript of Crime Analytics

More Criminal activities More Job cuts Rise in Unemployment rate Slow Judiciary Breach of contract End of Business Deal What is the effect of a slow judiciary system on the economy on the long run ? CRIME ANALYTICS Impact of rate of judicial decision making on Indian Economy Expose '12 The Impact Terrorist attack Mumbai on 26th November 2008 13th January 2009 Kasab’s trial begins Mumbai, Kasab and the question that Hangs 7th October 2008 Tata group decides to relocate plant to Gujrat incurring a loss of 1000 cr Tata nano manufacturing project in WB launced in 2006 with 1500 cr investment Overall statistics: Pending cases and vacancies across courts in India and its affect on Indian Economy Analyzing the impact of the rate of judicial decision making system on crime rate and economic growth Problem Statement: Slow judiciary system impacting growth per capita income Buyer asking price is an increasing function of the quality of the judiciary (ICb = Incentive constraint of the buyer) Seller asking price is a decreasing function of the quality of the judiciary(ICs = Incentive constraint of the seller) A potential matching between to agents and zone of cooperation The potential partners of the seller Migration of Labour Slow Judiciary Imbalance of Socio- Economic Stucture Disinterested investors Obstacles for Business Growth Lower Job Opportunities Slow Judiciary Poor Standard of Living Shortage of Capital Unequal Distribution of Opportunities Geographically Various factors and related hypothesis have been generated to understand the drivers of the Indian Judiciary system Hypothesis H1: State with higher pendency rate has more breaches in contract H3: State with higher pendency rate has lower per capita income H5: State with higher literacy rate has a faster judicial system H2: State with higher pendency rate is more difficult in accessing credit market H4: State with higher vacancy in high courts and district courts has a slower judiciary system H1: State with higher pendency rate has more breaches in contract Breach in Contract failure to perform as promised making it impossible for the other party to perform repudiation of the contract The neoclassical framework guarantees that a contract will not be signed if a breach in contract is expected A breach of contract, also called a default, is one party's failure to comply with the norms of the contract, without a legally valid excuse The Judiciary acts as an important deterrent to any fraud that might be more economically attractive on the short run. (announcing an intent not to perform) H1: State with higher pendency rate has more breaches in contract H6: The turnaround time of cases is high in states where police strength is low H2: State with higher pendency rate is more difficult in accessing credit market Consumers Financial Institutes Banks & Real Estate Some Many Few Microfinance Firms How access to the credit market gets difficult in a slow judiciary system ? Banks and real-estate companies will suffer from more defaulters as slow judiciary will give scope to the defaulters to arrange fake evidences Financial institutes will ask for more mortgage money/asset to sanction loans as to recover the payment in case of default Microfinance companies will hardly get any access to credit loans due to lack of mortgaged assets Difficulty in getting a credit loan is directly proportional to the amount of outstanding money in the commercial banks Data validation of the hypothesis H2: More the pending civil cases more outstanding amount in commercial banks* H3: State with higher pendency rate has lower per capita income Top 5 Pending cases and Outstanding amounts H3: State with higher pendency rate has lower per capita income Pending
Cases Growth
Per Capita FDI H4: State with higher vacancy in high courts and district courts has a slower judiciary system H5: State with higher literacy rate has a faster judicial system H1: State with higher pendency rate has more breaches in contract H1: State with higher pendency rate has more breaches in contract *Andhra Pradesh H6: The turnaround time of cases is high in states where police strength is low Conclusions Higher pendency rate is affecting the economy across the northern and eastern states significantly ,however this factor gets suppressed as we go down south and west due to the heavy FDI inflow. More contracts are breached due to the high turnaround time taken by the judicial system to provide justice- As a result the socio-economic structure of the surrounding looses its balance Slower the judiciary lesser the income per capita which eventually leads to the increase of unemployment rate and criminal activities Slow judiciary system creates difficulty in accessing credit markets – this leads to disinterest amongst investors and venture capitalists while making investments Conclusions To fill up the vacancies across courts and increase the number of courts both civil and criminal To promote the study of law among the young folks During litigation between two parties the defaulter has to be punished severely in the event of a breach in contract on the grounds of personal interest To modernize the judicial system. The judges and the courts have to be better trained in the use of technology/forensic sciences to solve the cases faster Reccommendations A more deep dive analysis of states like UP and West Bengal need to be carried out at the district level in order to gauge their performance Future scope of work Regression based model can be developed to see the different factors affecting the judiciary in an aggregate level the factors affecting the speed of judiciary i.e. the pendency rate. Factors to be considered:
Growth per capita income
Unemployment rate
Literacy rate
Child Labor
Change of political power
Amount of outstanding balance in the commercial banks
FDI inflows
Deficit of police and judges across courts Level of the data is at a state level, district level validation will also be done from this Discriminant functional analysis to be carried over to find out the states that behave similarly w.r.t. to 4 major factors:
Contribution to GDP
FDI inflows
Vacancy across courts
Pendency rate across courts Thank You Questions
Full transcript