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Population

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Jason Linn

on 11 April 2014

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Transcript of Population

Can't stop; Won't stop:
Population & The Environment
An Exploding World
The king said, “no money, no gold.  Just…”
    1 grain of wheat on the first square

      2 on second
        4 on third (etc.)
           …for the 64 squares on the board.
How many grains were on the last square?
Legend:  A king offered reward to a chess inventor
Discussions on Population in history
Exponential Growth
Carrying Capacity
Population Growth factors
Outline
Fertile Crescent
Indus Valley Civilization
Roman Empire
Easter Island

Why did they collapse?
Question: Has the human population ever experienced a crash or collapse?
The maximum number of individuals in a species that an environment can sustain indefinitely.
Carrying Capacity
18.5 QUINTILLION grains!!
Tragedy of the Commons
Paul Ehrlich (1932- )
Measurable growth takes two forms: arithmetic and geometric (exponential)

Arithmetic (Linear) operates by the principle of simple addition 2 +2 +2 +2
1,2,3,4,5,6,7

Geometric (Exponential) doubles over time
2 * 2 * 2 * 2
1,2,4,8,16,32,64
Population Growth
Garrett Hardin (1915-2003)
Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)
Lily Anne Y. Welty
Environmental Studies 1
Human Population
August 15, 2012
Ingenuity= Ultimate Resource
Julian Simon (1915-1998)
=
Impact = Population x Affluence (Consumption) x Technology
EXPANSION OF THE HUMAN POPULATION
1998
An Exploding World
Expansion of the Human Population 1998
But ecologist have never found a complex species whose population follows this idealized growth curve. Instead . . .
Yeast and bacteria populations grow like this.
Population
Time
But . . .
Based on averages
Population effect calculated as if proportionate (i.e. big and small consumers treated statistically the same)
Difficult to measure technology and effects
Criticisms of I=PAT
Carrying capacity
Then slows and has a “soft landing.”
Starts out exponential.
Population
Time
Nothing grows uncon-strained forever:
Predators
Disease
Food limits
Resource limits
Constrained Growth
Billion people
You are here!
6.6 billion 2007
5.0 billion 1987
1.7 billion 1910
1 billion 1800
Rome 250 million
Agriculture
10 million
Human Population Through Time
Time
Collapse
Overshoot
Exponential
Or even this.
Stabilize
Oscillate
Overshoot
Time
Populations more typically follow a curve like this:
Overshoot!
Growth rate peaked in 1968 with a doubling time of 35 years.
Quadrupled in 100 years
Average doubling = 50 years
Quadrupled in 1800 years
Average doubling = 900 years
Billion people
6.6 billion 2007
1.7 billion 1910
1 billion 1800
250 million 0 AD
Faster than Exponential
Year
1950
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
0
Population in more-developed countries
1
2
World population (in billions)
Population in less-developed countries
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Fig. 6-3, p. 127
Where Population Growth Occurred
Exponential growth is characterized by:
A constant growth rate.
A constant doubling time.
8
4
2
1
An unconstrained population grows exponentially.
Exponential Growth
A. Infant mortality





















Germ theory (1870s)
Vaccination (1796)
Antibiotics
germs = predator; humans = prey

Solutions
Children as part of the labor force

Factors that affect birth rates and fertility

Women: rights, edu,employment


Future
9.2 billion in 2050 according to the 2006 U.N. revision.

U.N. projection = soft landing

1. No other complex species is known to do this.
2. Yeast & bacteria grow like this


Soft Landing?

sanitation
Child labor
education
Is population
growth bad?

Indiv & Society’s Knowledge

Julian Simon
Paul
Ehrlich
Can't stop; won't stop
Population

I = PAT
Malthus (1798)
Mechanical
reaper
Mechanized farming
Women: edu & employment
Or even this.

Populations more typically follow a curve like this
:

Overshoot!

Overshoot & collapse
Human Population Values

The Rapture
babies born year X
Deforestation
agriculture land improve or degrade?
Water
Energy
Full transcript