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THE NEXT WAVE V1

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Transcript of THE NEXT WAVE V1

PA, CA, DE, MI
PRESTIGE IS TO HIGHER EDUCATION

AS

PROFIT
IS TO CORPORATIONS.

1990's
Athletic Trainers
.07%
2%
43%
55%
89%
94%
Chemical Engineers
Economists
Commercial Pilots
Technical Writers
Accountants
Probability that
automation
will lead to
job losses
in next two decades.
Under 1,000
5,000-9,999
10,000+
THE NEXT WAVE:
NAVIGATING THE CHALLENGES OF A NEW ERA FOR HIGHER EDUCATION

@jselingo
Visibility,
Orexpectaitons

Technology Trigger
Peak of Inflated Expectations/Regulation/ Policy Thinking

Trough of Disillusionment
Plateau of Productivity
Slope of Enlightenment

Time
Visibility,
Orexpectaitons

March 2012
Late 2013
2014-2015
2023 Onwards
2017-2022
Time
Oregon State University's Learning Innovation Center
THE GROWTH ERA

1968-1990
THE TECH ERA
1991-2010

BABY BOOMERS LEADS TO A

GROWTH SPURT
AT AMERICAN
COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES.
INCREASED FEDERAL SPENDING BECAUSE OF THE COLD WAR AND
THE INTERNET AND TECHNOLOGY LEAD TO ADVANCES IN TEACHING
AND LEARNING, MOSTLY EXPANDING ACCESS THROUGH
AND OFFERINGS JUST AS THE BABY
BOOM ECHO REACHES COLLEGE AT THE TURN OF THE 21ST CENTURY.
NEW TECHNOLOGIES


WE ARE NOW FIRMLY PLANTED IN THE

THIRD ERA
AND THAT ERA BRINGS WITH IT
THREE DISTINCT CHALLENGES FOR
THE FUTURE OF HIGHER EDUCATION.

COINCIDES WITH DIMINISHED STATE AND FEDERAL SPENDING AND
IN THE NUMBER OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES
SQUEEZED PERSONAL INCOME.
DOWNTURN
A
HOW DO WE
REMAKE
HIGHER EDUCATION

FOR THE NEEDS OF A
21ST CENTURY ECONOMY?
HOW DO WE
SERVE
A NEW GENERATION OF
STUDENTS FROM FAMILIES STRUGGLING TO AFFORD A COLLEGE EDUCATION?
HOW WILL WE

ASSESS

AND

VALUE

HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE
FUTURE?
1
2
3
South
West
Midwest
Northeast
2017
Only
South
will see growth in
high school graduates over the next
decade.
Enrollment Trends By Size Institutions
2010-2013
Growing Financial Need:
Of U.S. counties with the highest proportion of young people are
below the national median income.
3/4
States with

low income
exceed
Even as the tuition discount rate has reached a record
48%
for first-year students,
family incomes are
48%
struggling to keep pace.
2012
2013
Consumer
Security/Safety/Warfare

Education
Business
Government/Regulation/ Policy Thinking

Healthcare
Source: Harvey Balls estimate degree to which Internet has changed behavior, outcomes in selected sectors of economy
MOOCS CREATE A RENAISSANCE IN THE MAIN BUSINESS OF HIGHER EDUCATION:

TEACHING & LEARNING

2027
1.2M
1.3M
0.8M
0.7M
0.6M
2017
2027
2017
2027
2017
2027
Public and Non-Public Graduates
A supply-demand mismatch:
Too many colleges and
universities in all the wrong places.
1,000-4,999
-5.2%
1.2%
-0.8%
0.8%
Number of Enrollments
50%
of the total

student population
.
1 out of every 5
students pays
100 percent
or more of
their annual income to cover the net price of college.
1996
2004
2008
2012
50%


40%


30%


20%


10%


0%
All Students
Lowest Income Quartile
Source: National Postsecondary Student and Study

States Getting Out of Higher Ed Business
Spending on colleges and universities will eventually
cease
by the
CO, AK
SC, AZ RI, VT, MA, MT, MN, OR, VA
NY, WI, WA, NH, TX
2020
2030
2040
2050
2050s
in
20 states
if the trends from 1980 to now continue.
SC, AZ RI, VT, MA, MT, MN, OR, VA
NY, WI, WA, NH, TX
PA, CA, DE, MI
Top 5 Skills
In Job Postings
Communication/Writing
Organizational Skills
Customer Service/Problem-Solving
Planning/Detailed-Oriented
PLAY
LEARN
JOB
RETIRE
0-5
5-25
25-65
65+
LEARN
Education moves from just
one time
to just
in time
and
all the time…
one time
in time
all the time...
Serviced
by a

new learning economy

that is emerging outside of traditional higher education to
serve

students anytime, anywhere...
…and increasingly on mobile devices.
WHAT ROLE DO TRADITIONAL COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES
Image via @Stanford Project
Open Loop
University
Three Faculty Models for the Future
Unbundled Approach
Team Approach
Flexible Approach
A two-track model favored by
50%
of
tenured faculty
and
70%
of
full-time,
non-tenured faculty,
according to a survey by University of Southern California.
The faculty role is unbundled.
Professors focus on delivery of courses designed by team of instructional designers.
Advising and assessment is centralized with professional academic staff.

A

greater mix between types
of roles, including administrative duties to give professors more

pathways through their careers.
NOW
Employers spend
$22 billion

on tuition benefits annually. What are they getting in return?
664,647
1,968,334
744,258
2,052,350
785,625
2,008,617
816,382
1,981,534
Graduates with Prior Awards
New College
Graduates
New College Graduates
and
Graduates
with Prior Awards
(Bachelor's and Associate Degrees Combined)
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
THE GROWTH ERA

1968-1990
THE TECH ERA
1991-2010

BABY BOOMERS LEADS TO A

GROWTH SPURT
AT AMERICAN
COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES.
INCREASED FEDERAL SPENDING BECAUSE OF THE COLD WAR AND
THE INTERNET AND TECHNOLOGY LEAD TO ADVANCES IN TEACHING
AND LEARNING, MOSTLY EXPANDING ACCESS THROUGH
AND OFFERINGS JUST AS THE BABY
BOOM ECHO REACHES COLLEGE AT THE TURN OF THE 21ST CENTURY.
NEW TECHNOLOGIES
Sector of Economy Society, USA
Internet Impact to Date
Admissions Rates
Test Scores
Class Rank
Faculty Compensation
Faculty Compensation
Alumni Donating to College
Student-Faculty Ratio
Class Size
Instructional Spending
Alumni Salaries
Debt Repayment
Student Engagement
Graduation Rates
Percentage On Pell Grants
Total Cost To Students
Faculty publications/Citations
Rankings Compared
0.2
2.2
0.3
0.3
2.3
0.3
0.4
2.4
0.4
0.3
2.6
0.8
0.3
2.5
1.6
0.3
2.3
1.6
0.3
2.4
2.3
0.4
2.4
2.8
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.7
4.3
4.9
5.3
5.6
Mobile
Desktop/Laptop
Other Connected Devices
Time Spent Per Adult User Per Day With Digital Media, USA,
2008-2015YTD
Lifelong Education: Formal & Informal
2011-CURRENT
COINCIDES WITH DIMINISHED STATE AND FEDERAL SPENDING AND
IN THE NUMBER OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES
SQUEEZED PERSONAL INCOME.
DOWNTURN
A
2011-CURRENT
THE COLLABORATION ERA
?
THE
NEW
NORMAL
IN THE NUMBER OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES
SQUEEZED PERSONAL INCOME.
DOWNTURN
A
2011-CURRENT
COINCIDES WITH DIMINISHED STATE AND FEDERAL SPENDING AND
Engagement
Graduate Salary
VA
12%
Employers
Workforce Learning
@jselingo
jeffselingo.com
CO, AK
Source:https://www.brookings.edu/research/mapping-the-market-for-higher-education/
PLAY IN THIS
NEW LEARNING ECONOMY?
THE COLLABORATION ERA
Full transcript