5
Scenarios
Recruiting Disruption
Common Assumptions Are Competitive Leverage
Disruption
How The Future Always Happens
Scenario Planning
Know Your Field
Imagine An Abrupt Future
Notice Opportunities
Notice Vulnerabilities
Take Account
Scenarios Expose Options
- Any Great Systems Has Gotta Have One
- The Things You Are Least Likely to Look At
- Change Flows Through The Normal To The Unexpected
Scenario 1: Lots of Structural Change
- Oil Prices Move to $200/barrel A Year From Now
- The Downturn Is Followed By Sustained Growth
- More of The Same: Growth Slows to a Permanent Crawl

Senario 2: Guild Cities
- Migration Toward Specialty Regions
- The Richard Florida Future
- Balkanization
Scenario 3: Invasion of The Shallybots
- One Beelion Nanobots Doing Sourcing
- Floods of Intelligence Make Us Stupid
- We are the cloud
Scenario 4:The Pandemic
- Massive Viral Wipeout
- Half of All Children Dead
Scenario 5: All Games All The Time
- The Measured Society
- Frequent Flyer Points for Everything
- Performance MAnagement Gone Wild
- All Data is Portable