Scenario Planning - futuramb

Scenario Planning an approach for managing uncertainty and understanding the bigger picture Human have shown a remarkable ability to learn and survive in an uncertain and changing environment... an introduction to The answer seems to lie somewhere here "Memory of the future" David Ingvar, 1985 ...with many unpredictable dangers What if she asks about...? What if she gets angry when I...? What if we meet...? What if she don't like...? OK, I do it! But first I must... We seems to have natural ability to imagine and analyze many possible situations - scenarios - before we act. The more uncertain we experience a situation the more our "memory of the future" is active in producing possible future situations. ...and learn about the future by systematically visualize several possible futures ...and what do we do when we tell each other stories? We share and envision scenarios Key benefits with Setting strategic direction Catalyzing bold action Facilitate collaborative learning about the organizational environment Want to know more about scenario planning? scenario planning American automotive industry in the 1980:s Example scenario set Critical uncertainties in the contextual environment Scenarios Why should we do it? Avoiding single future blindness... 1. Research and formulate focal issue for the process 2. Search the driving forces 3. Identify critical uncertainties 4. Develop scenarios 5. Strategic analysis of consequences scenario planning Yes by implementing a Key method 1: Take an outside-in perspective Can organizations also be able to envision different futures to manage uncertainty? P A Martin Börjesson +46 704 262891 martin@futuramb.se www.futuramb.se @futuramb process The ability to envision and anticipate different future possibilities seems to be a key capability for managing uncertainty... Preparation for an uncertain future