Scenario Planning an approach for managing uncertainty and understanding the bigger picture Human have shown a remarkable ability to learn and survive in an uncertain and changing environment... an introduction to The answer seems
to lie somewhere here
"Memory of the future" David Ingvar, 1985 ...with many unpredictable dangers What if she
What if she gets
angry when I...?
What if we
What if she
OK, I do it! But first I must... We seems to have natural ability to imagine and analyze many possible situations - scenarios - before we act. The more uncertain we experience a situation the more our "memory of the future" is active in producing possible future situations. ...and learn about the future by systematically visualize
several possible futures
...and what do we do when
we tell each other stories?
We share and envision scenarios Key benefits with Setting strategic direction Catalyzing bold action Facilitate collaborative learning about the organizational environment Want to know more
about scenario planning?
scenario planning American automotive
industry in the 1980:s
Example scenario set Critical uncertainties
in the contextual
Scenarios Why should we do it? Avoiding single
1. Research and formulate focal issue for the process 2. Search the
3. Identify critical
4. Develop scenarios 5. Strategic analysis
scenario planning Yes by implementing a Key method 1:
Take an outside-in
Can organizations also be able to envision different futures to
P A Martin Börjesson +46 704 262891
process The ability to envision and anticipate different future
possibilities seems to be a key capability for managing uncertainty...
Preparation for an
See the full transcript