DESIGNING INNOVATION HUBS
Future Places for Science & Technology
ANTHONY TOWNSEND
Institute for the Future
Palo Alto, Calif.
http://www.iftf.org/innovation
MODELS & PLACES FOR R&D
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
CREATING SCENARIOS
ECONOMY & SOCIETY
TRENDS
SHAPING
THE FUTURE
CREATING A FORECAST
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PARKS 3.0
DEMATERIALIZED INNOVATION
FURTHER READING
STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
a field guide to the future of science parks and technology-led economic development
COMING THIS FALL!
International Association of Science Parks
09.2008 Johannesburg | South Africa
Assoc. of University Research Parks
12.2008 St. Petersburg | Florida | USA
International Economic Development Council
01.2009 Tempe | Arizona | USA
External experts: real estate development, entrepreneurship, lab design, etc.
01.2009 | Online
4 expert workshops
Institute for the Future analysis on
science & technology, innovation, and cities
The Group Economy
From Free Markets to
Stimulus Capitalism
The Rise of Ecological Economics
 global developments that will set the context for enterprises of every kind
Biology By Design
Ubiquitous Computing
From AI to
Hybrid Sensemaking
New Scientists
Science Institutions Transformed
Global Map of Science
Lightweight Innovation
Making Know-how "Sticky"
Small, Social Research Spaces
We focused on 4 highly uncertain trends...

...to shape 3 future scenarios for innovative places.
UNIVERSITIES
Some will evolve into economic engines,
others may retreat to the ivory tower.
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
How will the sustainability of different innovation systems be measured and benchmarked? 
NEW SCIENCE INSTITUTIONS
Where will the new networks of  science meet-up?
FUTURE OF BIO-INDUSTRY
Who will drive innovation?
Top-down or bottom up?
How fast will breakthroughs come?
Installing an upgrade module
The Network Oasis
(Joensuu Science Park, Finland)
Research parks are still recognizable to us... 
...but they have upgraded to the next “version”.
Mixed use / entrepreneurial
SkySong Innovation Center
(Arizona, USA)
Incremental change
What It Might Look Like
Installing a new operating system
North Carolina Research Parks Network
(North Carolina, USA)
www.iftf.org/iasp
full paper
a MIT-designed
"reality-mining sociometer"
Regional Knowledge Ecosystems
Networks of independent co-ops

What It Might Look Like
THE RISE OF RESEARCH "CLOUDS"
Research parks are challenged by "clouds"...

...regional networks of small spaces for R&D,
tied together by social software.
Disruptive transformation from outside
Rich, agile clusters with many spaces & players
R&D goes virtual, and clusters start to decouple from places
Research parks are in deep trouble...

...their economic model undermined
by high costs of R&D.
Big projects stalled or cancelled
What It Might Look Like
Alternate "spaces" for collaboration
"Sweating the asset"
R&D hotelling?
Knowledge spot markets flourish
Business models: From products to services
Making know-how sticky
"From managing dirt to managing activity"
Questions?

Talk to me after the session or email me

atownsend@iftf.org

DESIGNING INNOVATION HUBS
ANTHONY TOWNSEND | Institute for the Future

Future Places for Science & Technology
Social networks that  unite scattered workers into collaborative "organizations"
telepresence
virtual worlds (IBM Innovation Jam)
old - buildings, sites, infrastructure
new - research “hotels”, incubation, knowledge commons
R. Florida tells you who to get, a little about how to attract them, nothing about what to do once they get there!

supporting enterprises that build on unique local assets
innovation on the shop floor:
re-mixing manufacturing and R&D

re-inventing local clusters
Institute for the Future Forecast on
Universities: From Ivory Tower to Economic Engine
Re-assessing
assessment tools
US R&D spending
Universities
Sustainability
Bio-Industry
Science Networks
Universities
Sustainability
Bio-Industry
Science Networks
Universities
Sustainability
Bio-Industry
Science Networks
embracing entrepreneurship
experimenting with 
 tech transfer and IP frameworks
research parks become "living labs"
for sustainable design
taking calculated risks
The recession pushed big pharma into  early-stage funding of biotech
Parks become a great place to co-locate big companies with their "innovation portfolio"
Parks are participating in online networks,
but aren't the main hubs
A spur on the Science 2.0 superhighway
Haven't figured out how to embrace the non-institutional assets all around them 
Universities with less resources see opportunity: incremental cloud development
vs. massive investment in research campuses
Clouds put "legacy" parks at a disadvantage
They are hard to define, 
hard to measure, 
hard to footprint
Research parks, corporate and university campuses are big targets for carbon regulators and watchdogs
Clouds use space much
more intensely (>50%) and efficiently
Clouds colve many of the scientific challenges big pharma can't
Not solving every problem, but
making some big breakthroughs
Pioneering open models for
sharing knowledge and IP
Research clouds have no institutions to start with,
so they have to invent new ones
They become -the- hubs where new science networks convene
..and so they become what universities seek   to re-capture - welcoming, transdisciplinary and open idea factories

With few successes to show for sacrifices, some universities retreating from tech transfer efforts
Distance learning took off during the recession,
now highly appealing alternative - formal and p2p
Dematerializing helps companies lower the carbon footprint of R&D activities
But parks could have a big role
as event spaces, if they re-invent
their infrastructure their business models
Virtualization a way to keep ROI on R&D up,
despite stagnant productivity
Push carbon off the books - offshore, 
home-based workers, crowds, etc.
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
hosted conversations - Google Wave
(CoWo, Milano, Italy; Adams Morgan Works, Washington, DC , USA)
MIT and surrounds - Cambridge, Mass., USA)
(Science In The Trangle blog; Freelancers Union on facebook.com)
Much of what they offer can be replicated online
If the research cloud scenario is about scattering R&D across new kinds of more small-scale, intimate spaces

this scenario is about getting rid of as much physical stuff as possible.
New science networks are
disconnected from parks...
(UNLV Research & Technology Park, Nevada, USA;
Saint Petersburg Technopark, Russia)
today, when you think of places for innovation, you think of...
universities
science parks
business incubators
"creative cities"
but what if we zoom ahead to 2030...
what will innovative places look like?
disposable/mobile research parks
super-specialized clusters
meetups, unconferences and coworking
talent clouds
on the future of research parks and technology-led economic development
more important, how do we get there?
Three Futures for Innovative Places
Science Parks 3.0
Research Clouds
Dematerialized Innovation
Univerisities, industry and government as partners
Loose networks of small spaces, coordinated by social software
Cutting R&D to the bone, virtualizing what's left
carbon negative? a new business model = selling credits to tenants